VW started that trend about two decades ago, in the Golf/Jetta MK5, when they moved from port injection (petrol is fired in a fine mist into the intake manifold during the intake stroke, essentially right on top of the intake valve) to direct injection (high pressure, straight into the combustion chamber, like a Diesel).
The advantages, as always, is reduced emissions, and a cooler piston, which reduces the chance of knocking, allows advancing the timing, which in turn means you can run higher boost on the turbo.
The disadvantages include carbon deposits on your intake valves, because there is no petrol washing it off continuously, less efficient combustion at lower rpms/idle, and it is a lot more expensive.
The latest trend, is for cars to have BOTH port and direct injection. Even some Hyundai/Kia models have that by now.
All of this complexity can be done away with… soon I hope!
I agree but don’t hold your breath: there’s been 100 years of development on the ICE motorcar.
But my reasoning also sees the EV breaking even since it’s a way more efficient vehicle and simpler too so the advantages will swing the move towards these vehicles (but not in Africa )
There was a similar amount of development in steam engines, and probably even more in horse-drawn carriages! And still, the ICEV took over in the space of 20 years or so (from 1900 to 1920), especially after the model T made it affordable.
We had 50 years of development into tube televisions, and LCDs replaced them in under a decade.
It’s kinda sorta like the “sunk cost fallacy”. We have this much money into it… therefore we should keep it
Still, I don’t expect electric vehicles to “take over” for a while to come. First, individual EV models will begin to outsell competitors (this has technically happened now with the model Y outselling the Corolla). Then it will start to become a regular thing. Then entire classes of EV vehicles will start outselling the same class of ICEV, initially probably small passenger vehicles, then smaller SUVs, etc.
South Africa is probably about 3 years away, at best, from cracking even the first of those milestones.
I’m a bit like @Sarel.Wagner with a fair degree of pessimism about darkest Africa being quick to adopt this electric world.
The first EVs are not going to be minibus taxis
But I also think that despite the SA government signing all the agreements to move beyond fossil fuels we’ll be stuck with these for a long time to come (unless someone else foots the bill)
Michael Avery had an interview with a crude oil investor. He makes some measured observations on the future: Classic Business - Fine Music Radio
The Crude Oil conundrum
Exports are huge:
The AIEC says the export value of vehicles and automotive components increased by R19.8 billion, or 9.5%, from the R207.5 billion in 2021 to a record R227.3 billion in 2022, comprising 12.4% of total South African exports. Vehicle exports increased by 53,765 units to 351,785 units in 2022, up from 298,020 units exported in 2021, while the vehicle export value increased by R18.7 billion from the R138.3 billion in 2021 to R157 billion in 2022, the highest vehicle export value on record.
This, in the future, will get killed by EV’s, as of date there are no plans to build BEV’s locally.
So the transition to net 0 is going well…. REIPPP Current Installed Capacity (MW):
Concentrated solar: 500 MW
Utility-scale solar PV: 2,286 MW
Wind (Eskom plus Independent Power Producers): 3,443 MW
The cheapest one is the Chevy Bolt, at arount 20k USD, and I think that is AFTER a tax credit of 7.5k. That’s 380k, which I would spend in a heartbeat for a decent new EV (I spent more on the i3!), but the nearest car in its class (the Honda Fit) is also around that price – without the tax credit.
But then again, we also know cars are just insanely expensive in SA anyway.
I’m convinced the transition to EVs will be dependent on the viability of oil. The percentage of Greenies who will insist on an EV no matter what cost is insignificant in SA. Consumers here are price conscious and this is primarily what matters to them.
So the future prospects of oil will have a bearing on this transition.
Interesting to hear how there was no shortage of Russian oil despite all the sanctions…
I wonder if ICE vehicles will even be recognisable in 10 years time? With the simplicity, reliability and efficiency of EV platforms - together with the fact that they will not be able to sell ICE at all in many markets - I expect that many manufactures will just repackage their EV platforms with a small battery and ICE motor-generator for the ICE markets.
In the general market, not us lot here specifically, there are lots of EV models that people are prepared to buy, and are indeed buying. Other countries have decent infrastructure, from better roads and few potholes to always on electricity to name a few. They also have way less (at least on the import or manufacturing side) red tape and taxes and are actively assisting the adoption of EV’s.
But Africa.So here we are with almost all EV’s costing R750K and above where in comparison elsewhere they may be on par with ICE pricing, or less.
On another note, EV’s cannot exist without oil, at all…. So think that one over a bit….
Once you have an EV power train, all you need is an ICE powered generator to make it go. No need for gearboxes. No need for complex VVT and such complex systems (as the ICE can be optimised for one speed). Ends up being a far simpler vehicle than traditional ICE, and can use a common platform across markets.
This is a crate EV motor sold by Ford, and is pretty much the complete drive train. Just insert side shafts and hook up the electronics.
Should be good for 500,000km+ with an oil service every 100,000km.
For USD 4340 (retail!). So lets say R80,000.
I got a quote to replace the integral clutch on my previous Ford gearbox - R48k. Almost half the price of the EV drive train just for one wear and tear component of the gearbox that is not likely to last more than 250,000km.
ICE/EV battle aside, I would say the age of the transmission is nearly over.
The actual transition to EV’s and disruption curve, with future predictions for an S curve as these disruptions normally transpires. The biggest EV producer today, Tesla, and where it is not yet present. Yess I am aware that them Chinesiums are also all over the World and in lots of places where Tesla is not. But it gives us an idea whereEV sales are really happening….
)
and no not that go-cart thingy at $5k or $4k, there are plenty real cars…
