Just have a think, ICE cars EVs and power generation

eMobility (EV's, etc)
725

Sorry to pick that specific snippet of a sentence, but there is something I can tie on to that. How big is the SA car market really? Apparently, somewhere between 1% and 2% of the global market. Tiny tiny, in other words.

It is apparently also one reason we’re still on much older Diesel regulations. Even with the dirtier engines and fuel, we’re still insignificant on the world pollution map (in terms of Diesel, not coal).

It may be one reason the big manufacturers are so slow to introduce EV options to South Africa. In Q1 2023, around 92 000 vehicles were sold, of which 232 were EVs. Not a fair statistic really (somewhat self-fulfilling), but it indicates just what a tiny tiny percentage of demand is in this country. At least for now…

That’s actually something I’ve been thinking about. Comes up often in debates with ICE-proponents too, where it usually takes the form of a False Dichotomy: Either you do everything without oil, or you abandon EVs, no other options allowed! Practice what you preach! :slight_smile:

The reality is that the plastics, the tyres, sometimes even the mining of the non-oil things require oil. So I started wondering, what are the percentages?

Well, of every vat of crude oil we turn 45% into petrol and 29% into Diesel. So about three quarters of that barrel turns into fuel. The other 25% turns into plastics, fertilizer, even some medicines such as aspirin, penicilin, and some chemotherapy.

So my thinking is that perhaps… if we don’t burn three quarters of the stuff, we can do more good with it?

I’m also thinking, if we don’t use so much of it, what we have left under ground – for it cannot be an unlimited supply, that is mathematically certain – could probably last us long to see us through this iteration of civilisation?

If we use oil for other more long-term purposes, we’re also not releasing that carbon into the atmosphere. That is another win.

The only thing I don’t know enough about: I don’t know if you can just willy-nilly make more of one kind of product just because you make less of another. I know that you can make more Diesel and less petrol fairly easily during the refining process, but I don’t know if you can easily make more plastics, fertilizer and tar just because you want to. Do we have a chemical engineer in our midst’s?

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726

Well kinda no, it depends on price at this time. There is very little demand at the inflated local prices, for sure. Get them prices in line with equivalent ICE…

Well, willy nilly make something else, not so easy. Take your Diesel/Petrol as example. Not so easy to change the ratio of what gets distilled out of a specific source crude, that is kinda fixed at source. Yes fractional distillation can be manipulated as to ratio by Catalytic cracking to some extent, but at a cost.

IamnochemistGroetnis

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727

I think you can affect the ratios a little, basically by making things hotter/cooler, but that doesn’t mean we can take a barrel of oil and turn it into purely plastic (and nothing else), to use a crude example. Pun intended.

Of course, just because you cannot do the above, it doesn’t follow that therefore we can continue burning the by-product with no worries either.

728

I’m wonder about this: I guess 1-2% is actually not that little, given that our population is <1% of the world’s population. But also - in EU and UK for example, my understanding is that little people still “purchase” cars, and rather “hire purchase”. And I’m not sure it should count as a new car sale if you are just paying interest, capital depreciation and probably a bit of profit, but will return the car after X years. At least, it shouldn’t be counted together for statistical purposes (I don’t know if they do this, I’m only speculating).

729

I think they look at the source end: New car sales. If you lease a new car, it still results in a sale upstream, and for the most part it still results in one old ICE-car going to the crusher.

The numbers I was using is NAAMSA stats. They look at new car sales… even to rental companies.

Do a big extent, this revolution is driven by governments. Which is why there are so many angry people shaking a fist and yelling “don’t tell me what to do you commie bastards!”. The government sets the benchmark, and then the industry (who would like to sell cars in that market) do what they can to hit the target. That same government may then also incentivise a move with subsidies.

In SA, the government hasn’t set a benchmark. There are no subsidies, in fact there are only taxes. And since we consume not even 2% of the market, there isn’t any external drive to change things either. Apparently our government has said they will come up with something. Eventually.

Are we really surprised? No. Frustrated maybe, but not surprised.

730

Well not really, you may get more higher octane and a little less lower, but not by much. For example, more petrol is required, then longer chains (from other crude oil components) can be cracked and added to the distillate. Alternatively, the chains from lighter gases can be unified to form petrol-length chains.

So in summary, its a post process after fractional distillation and requires catalysts and more processing, and mostly lots more heat (extra energy consumption).

HoeekditverstaanGroetnis

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731

It might be sold as a second hand car (for the first time) outside of the EU after the lease period ended. However, the original “owner” never owned the car, so they technically never paid for the capital amount of the vehicle.

Obviously we aren’t a massive part of the global market, but the fact that some manufacturers actually go through the trouble of establishing manufacturing here to get some credit on imports (amongst other things) does make me think that we probably aren’t insignificant.

732

Oh I agree, but I deeply suspect they want us more for the lower labour costs (as much as we are still somewhat on the low end). Nevertheless, I think we’re an important market, also as a gateway into Africa… but ultimately we’re not standing in front of the line. We’re probably hanging around in the back of the line… thankfully we are IN the line. Not like some other countries who gone start a war instead…

733

Govt (Specifically Ebarhim Patel) has been sitting on our NEV strategy for about 2 years now…
I can only hope they come with a proposal that will keep the current manufacturers in SA because at the moment it doesn’t look like we are preparing for the BEV future of Europe where most of our exports are going to.
I am hoping as a handy side effect of that we would get competitively priced EV’s locally.

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734

That in the line thing… Nothing reliable in the long run, look at Aus as prime example, no more manufacturing down under for them cars, all shuttered.

For us, nothing appears reliable from over the big pond no more, electricity, stable workforce (look at the disasters locally) strikes and violence, then lastly wages. Not to say anything about the investments required and the political desirability or lack thereof. Other African countries have a leg up on us, closer to the EU markets, still able to be a port into Africa.

Me thinks we may not be as rose as we like to think we are. We may also loose the AGOA thing, and that can lead to more of the same with others, no?

Groetnis

735

:+1:

736

But we can reuse and recycle the existing to reduce the need to start from scratch :wink:

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737

Yeah, sort that out first, till then we don’t need more oil to make more plastics. :slight_smile:

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738

As I understand it though, there is also a limit to how many times you can recycle plastic. Every time you recycle it, the polymer chain goes shorter (I googled that), and the quality degrades. So it helps, but it doesn’t completely solve our problem. Now apparently there is Bioplastics, and google tells me that is only 20% more expensive… so who knows… might not be as big a problem as it seems initially? Sadly I don’t know much about this stuff. I’m bouncing this off you guys.

739

I agree… If you start with the best quality and recycle down (ie into lower quality parts) I think you can extend the life. So only use “1st order”/new raw plastic when necessary. I love the idea of a drivetrain replacement plus battery for an existing car (my KB240 for example) :wink:

I don’t need this overkill either… ELUMINATOR™ MACH E ELECTRIC MOTOR | Part Details for M-9000-MACHE | Ford Performance Parts

740

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… the moment I got that, I thought of this thread. :rofl:

741

In what it’s calling the world’s first, battery giant CATL (and major Tesla supplier) revealed its new “Shenxing Superfast Charging Battery” at a product launch event Wednesday. CATL says its new fast-charging LFP battery is capable of adding 248 miles range (400km) with a 10-minute charge.

CATLs new fast-charging LFP battery is equipped with in-house technology, including fast ion ring technology, a new superconducting electrolyte formulation, and an ultra thin and safer separator.

The new LFP battery will enable up to 434 miles (700 km) range. CATL claims its new innovation is the world’s first LFP battery to support 4C charging, as well as a “battery for everyone.” For those that don’t know, the “C” refers to the charging multiplier of the battery. Hence 4C can charge in a quarter of an hour.

742

Am I missing something … BUT this will needs some serious charging power and infrastructure to achieve? Something 99% of residential users won’t have…

743

If you want to charge faster … it is going to cost you something.

4C charging they say on that tech.

Just hit me …

“People” be like “We cannot use an EV, takes too long to charge!”

So they fix it.

Now “people” be like “We cannot charge our EV, it takes too high charge amps!”

:smile:

744

What people miss is that fast charging is the exception, rather than the rule. Most EVs slow charge at home overnight. Why charge in 15 minutes when the car is going to be parked for 8 hours?

Fast charging is for those long distance trips and commercial vehicles. So while the power demand of fast charging is very high, it only makes up a tiny portion of the total EV power load.

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