Just have a think, ICE cars EVs and power generation

:eyes:🧠**
Reposting here.
Lets have a proper look at the SA scenario for the future, regarding ICE cars and EVs and the outlook for power generation. So why look at this you may ask? Easy answer, this is not.

My distinctly charcoal grey Crystal ball🔮 is a bit foggy about the future. One thing thou is that the Legal framework and idiotic ideology in SA will not change anytime soon. The fraud, graft and ineptitude of the Cleptocracy will snowball if any of the current proposals for bee and other new legislation (or just look at the Powership story) are anything to go by. Now, I hate being negative, but all the years gone by has proof in and of itself, this is barreling along. I am a realist, just for the record.

But back to ICE cars end Escam. Worldwide, many counties enacted new legislation, or are about to, to either ban ICE cars or pivot manufacturing to alternative technologies like BEV’s. Lets unpack.

In less than 10 years, the production of ICE cars will plummet by a significant %. When that materialises, SA’s exports will be affected as Japan and Europe will want to keep employing their own people, so guess where factories will be closed first? Also a consequence of less demand for ICE cars will be less development for new models and a reduction of parts produced for maintenance. As electronics are updated, older chips and systems will no longer be available to manufacture the computers for older generation cars. The end game will be for ICE car manufacturing to collapse due to unavailability of parts as well as the cost to build the low volumes, making them very expensive.

What will happen to industrial machines and other heavy equipment, maybe they pivot to electricity as well. There are numerous very large (100 tonne and larger) mining trucks that are electric powered or assisted, already. Diesel electric trains can all be converted to electric only. We currently have Gautrain that is electric only. The first electric ships and planes are currently being tested.

Here is the rub. When ICE dies, not if, Africa will have a problem. In 2008 there was the joke about what comes after electricity for SA, and its candlepower…. With SA on a downward trend 📉 in Eskom and no relief from policy or ideology, there will be no power to support BEV’s, let alone the population at large. We have frequent shortages as it is.

In the below picture, Red represents the occurrence of unplanned outages, hint, its a trend… Green trends downwards and is another trend. Over time, less and less generating capacity remains online and available.


Not green is NOT good.


Access to Electricity map.

Percentages of populations with a grid connection as well as how available or reliable that is. If its not available, it translates to loads being shed or no energy been available for those clients, or worse none at all.

It looks like there are huge changes coming, with many forms of disruptions to boot. Look at industries like IT, based on silicon (just look what computers did to cars, both as controller and optimisers of combustion as well as to the design and aerodynamics via CFD, to name a few, there are many more). Energy from Solar PV (also based mostly on silicon and benefitting from the IT technology pure silicon gains and developments) now being the least expensive energy generation tech, Transportation and Space travel with the possibility of living elsewhere, however far fetched it is today. Another big technology being disrupted is that of energy storage. We never before a short few years ago, had the means of Utility class energy storage. Now look at the Gigawatt en recently Terawatt hours battery storage systems. 5 years ago, Utility scale battery storage was not a thing, now it is. And it is cheap and getting cheaper at a very fast rate. Studies show that soon if not already, Solar PV and Battery storage systems will be less expensive to build, compared to traditional systems like Coal or Nuclear, and be far less costly to maintain.

Think about superconducting materials and the revolution that has happened there and in materials science in general. Now look at the latest materials technology in Carbon Nano materials. Currently the best known heat and electric conductor known. And the Carbon Nano materials are only now coming online for production use. Now, to prove the point of rapid development and disruption, smartphones are barely more than 10 years old, and see what they have done and disrupted and how quickly, just look at Twitter, Facebook and Google…. And remember when the Telephone was invented, how long did that took in comparison, to disrupt the market compared to smartphones that was doing so much faster. Another example is the car itself, it disrupted horse drawn vehicles and replaced then is just more than 10 year during the beginning of the 1900s.

A few pointers on the cost reduction of disruption. IT and Moor’s law, a doubling of transistor count every 18 months. Storage increase of about 50% capacity per year or if you like a density increase for same cost or the cost for same storage capacity halves. Look at battery cost reducing by 20% per year and almost the same for Solar PV panels. In total Solar PV costs reduced 400X since the 1970s already, and it keeps on falling. Networking and digital sensors are being transformed nearly as fast or faster with associated cost reductions per unit.

Where does this leave us on the African continent? In 20 to 30 years for us, there is a high probability that ICE cars and motorcycles will be utterly unaffordable if not completely unavailable. At the current trend of not properly maintaining the Coal fired generators, there will no longer be cheap or reliable energy available, if the ideology does not change. The prospects of this and the next generation changing their ideological outlook is slim to none, bar a catastrophic intervention. There is talk of Solar and Wind but I hear noting about storage and to boot, there are currently Zero and Nil Utility scale batteries connected to the grid in Africa. Calculations show that with Current technology, we need Solar PV sizing to be 4x larger than demand and just enough battery storage to cater for between 2 and 4 days worth of demand. With these ratios, we can replace base load generating stations. Imagine the efficiency and the astronomical cost savings. Oh wait, I just remembered, its not about cost savings here, its about contracts awarded to bee buddies at max value and max overrun….

Let’s remember that during the early 1900, the World suffered through an influenza pandemic, not unlike the current one. Not even that or a World war cold stop the Car disruption and transformation. Now today, think how much less you are driving due to the pandemic and why? Other technologies referred to above are aiding and abetting that your personal transportation is less of a requirement, yes even in SA, and more of a luxury. You work online, shop online, chat online etc etc.

In summary then, this is just scratching the surface. The IT revolution led to the Energy revolution that includes Solar PV and Battery storage. This will cause in short order, the total decline of ICE cars to be replaced by far cheaper BEV cars. The maintenance on tases BEVs are about a 1/4 of that for ICE cars. This will leave us with a transport issue and shortage of cars since we do not have and are not planning for BEVs nor for a proper legal framework for energy generation to support BEVs.

What to do, any ideas or comments? How to solve this or just how to deal with this? Let’s remember that everything is devolving from centralised to decentralised, for example the mainframe to mobile devices, banks to online banking services. Travel by car and plane to online meetings, from shopping malls to online purchases and delivery from warehouses. Nobody owns the internet and it’s distributed everywhere. The same is busy happening to transport and energy and soon food, Worldwide. It’s inevitable that these trends will hit us hard…. Sooner rather than later.

Tis the link; ICE cars, EVs and power generation

Personally, and this is just an opinion, Hybrids are an abomination. This is due to the fact that you have little of the battery power and all of the sh1t of the ICE like weight, at most 30% efficiency of ICE, all the maintenance and almost none of the benefits of EVs. The system is much much more complex then either ICE or EV alone.

The main issues for me are charging stations, public ones, and the associated issues with Eskom. Also it will be the closing and conversion of ICE factories to EV. Where do we think the likes of Ford, GM if they survive, Toyota, VW group etc. will want the EV factories? In the EU or the US or Aus. Just look at where Tesla is building em. And the reason are Unions. No union will allow factories to be closed and EVs be build elsewhere as that ill lead to massive in country job losses.

Where does that leave us?

Groetnis

Come to think of it, Solar PV prices keeps on falling year after year, just like IT that drives silicon pricing down. Coal, Nuclear, Diesel, Gas and Hydro prices keeps on rising year after year…. Wonder what the logical outcome will be? Not to mention the fact that apart from Solar panels, most of the pricing of the other extracted fuels is in the form of tax. Nice Cleptocracy with all them taxes, not?

And we have this gem:

IEEFA August 20, 2021

Eskom plans 30% reduction of coal-fired power generation

In South Africa, Eskom has announced the closure of several of its coal-fired power stations in the coming months and years. The state-owned company wants to rely on the renewable energies that have been massively produced (my emphesis) in the country in recent years. (This is really shoddy reporting by them, The facts are, all RE is only just above 10% today. They contradict themselves below anyways.)

Eskom is not definitively turning its back on fossil fuels. But the South African state-owned company intends to close several of its coal-fired power stations operating in the country. The objective for the current decade is to reduce its coal-fired power generation capacity from 8 000 to 12 000 MW. This represents 30% of its current installed capacity. The company, led by businessman Andre Marinus de Ruyter, has an installed capacity of 42,000 MW.

Most of this electricity is generated from coal-fired power stations operating in several provinces in South Africa. Eskom’s ambition is fuelled by the global decarbonisation movement, as global warming accelerates due to polluting infrastructure such as coal-fired power stations. South Africa’s largest electricity producer is also considered the biggest polluter on the African continent.

To achieve its plan, Eskom will have to shut down several ageing power stations. The state-owned company is first targeting the Komati power station. The plant, built in the 1970s, has a 300-metre chimney that is considered the tallest structure in South Africa. After a period of shutdown, the plant, which has a capacity of 1 000 MWe, was recommissioned in the early 2000s. The plant will be completely closed by October 2021.

Eskom plans to replace the coal with solar PV, with a plant equipped with a 244 MWh battery storage system. Before 2025, three other coal-fired power plants will close permanently. These are Grootvlei (1 200 MWe), Hendrina (2 000 MWe) and Camden (1 561 MWe), all in Mpumalanga province. Eskom is expected to get rid of most of its coal-fired power stations by 2050, with a $10 billion investment in renewable energy.

[Jean Marie Takouleu]

Escam’s own data shows 40% renewables by 2030. However independent data showing the planned rollout indicates otherwise, only about 24.7% by 2030.

All the more the data and facts show us, this is going to turn an ugly shade of brown….

And from that same report a summary:

Provision has been made for the following new additional capacity by 2030:
∞ 1,500MW of coal;
∞ 2,500MW of hydro;
∞ 6,000MW of solar PV;
∞ 14,400MW of wind;
∞ 1,860MW of nuclear;
∞ 2,088MW for storage;
∞ 3,000MW of gas/diesel; and
∞ 4,000MW from other distributed generation, co-generation, biomass and landfill technologies.

What is significant to note is the absence of co-generation o self generation. And about a month ago, Escam CEO said the following in front of the presidential climate commission:

The projects being considered consist of:

  • 1,566.2 megawatts of solar power
  • 600 megawatts of wind power
  • 4,000 megawatts of gas-fired power
  • 61 megawatts of battery storage
  • 1,400 megawatts from micro-grids
  • 390 megawatts from pumped storage, a type of hydro power

link here

In this slide(live on Eskom website) we see the current peak production from renewables:

Firstly what we want is like when Ford asked the owners of horses what they really wanted, the answer was faster horses 🐎 🤪 This is a fundamentals issue. ICE cars engines are at best 20% efficient, the rest of the fuel energy is wasted as heat and friction. In an EV, about 59-62 percent of the electrical energy from the grid goes to turning the wheels, whereas gas combustion vehicles only convert about 17-21 percent of energy from burning fuel into moving the car. So purely in using its energy, BEVs are 3x more efficient. When charged from Solar energy in comparison to fossil fuel based energy, the BEV systems efficiency is about 9X better. Petrol is two to three times more expensive per energy unit than electricity.

The reason for the inefficiency is thermodynamics. The theoretical upper limit to a heat engine’s efficiency is ~30% ish. The real problem the World, and us, faces is that already Solar PV energy is vastly less expensive than fossil or nuclear based energy sources, includinh hydro. Ok ok, hold your horses for a while first….

Any fossil or hydro or nuclear based power generation plant costs 4X more to operate (at least) than current Solar PV. Even if you get the generation plant for free, Solar PV is vastly less expensive to operate. As of today, Solar PV plus Wind plus Battery storage (SWBs) are way less expensive to build than traditional, way way faster to build and way more efficient than traditional power generation based on any of the other technologies. In summary, SWBs will be and order of magnitude more efficient, and will continue to become more efficient (less expensive over time) in comparison.

Nobody is suggesting that Oil will be dead or coal fired generation will die in 10 years time, but by then Solar and battery storage will again have reduced its cost by a few times. Wind cost will not drastically reduce over time. Everything considered as outlined above, ICE will be niche only and very expensive in 10 to 20 years time. And we will still not have enough energy to support BEVs at all. Just look at the planned expansion by or well loved utility, it will hardly cover the little growth in the economy we can hope and prey for.

Today its still ICE. The issue however is not today and its not about anything local apart from the energy issue to run them BEVs. The real issue is Solar PV combined with Wind and Batteries (SWBs) The cost reduction for SWBs will create an event that will suddenly reduce ICE and fossils demand by 80 or 90% in a decade or so from now. That is when we will be up the proverbial.

No manufacturer will design new ICE (of the ones that are still in business) so soon we will run out of factories locally. We can only hope some will convert to BEVs. That still leaves the energy issue, how to get enough energy to charge em and keep the lights on som to speak.

So hear this, taxing the Sun. Who you laughing at…. And a bit more on the Joule.

The first proposals to tax your generator was made already. Another crony institution proposes to tax you for watching streaming services over the internet. And they have not done anything to enable any such service use, nor provided any content. eToll anybody…

What they are really saying is this: We provide a crap service so nobody wants to pay our salaries or sponsor our graft by using our service, therefore we will tax our competition to earn the money we don’t deserve.

Its the same everywhere in our Cleptocracy, from Escam to SAA to SABC to your municipality. In the latter case, if you go solar, they charge you for a new meter and pay you noting as a feed in tariff, and that is apart from all the approval fees. Then on top of that you get to pay per time of day usage tariffs and also get slapped with a Solar tariff minimum charge. Tax the Sun, its hidden in there, in broad Sunshine. So, effectively, they want to charge you extra for not using their service! Monopolies sure suck….

The year 2020 was for SA some record, as 92 electric cars were sold in the country. Also only about 1000 EVs were sold to date since 2015. The Eskom CEO noted that the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa warned last year that the country’s motor industry could lose 80% of its exports by 2040, as countries announce timetables to prohibit the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles.

“This therefore calls for South Africa to take the lead, and prepare to exploit this opportunity and produce electric vehicles for export, as well as for domestic use.” We do not have our own to produce. The CancER killed off the Joule by Optimal energy.

The project was partially government-funded and the project was part of the Department of Science & Technology (DST). Few private investors contributed to the project and the car was meant to go on sale in 2014 but the company was closed by 2012. Optimal Energy failed to get more investors for the project as it was seriously taking huge amounts of money due to the project becoming more expensive. This made the project to be pushed back several times before it was finally cancelled. With no investors, the South African government pulled the plug on the idea.

For reference, Solar PV panels pricing dropped by 82% between 2010 and 2020. If we follow this trend (all indications are that the cost reductions will) to 2030, costs will reduce again by at least 70%. Wind generation costs reduced by almost 50% for the same period, and will also drop some more on the same curve, say about another 40% by 2030. For the same periods as above, Lithium based batteries costs reduced by almost 90% and the industry predicts another almost 80% drop, again by 2030.

All price reductions combined, its easy to envisage a system that by 2030 will cost between 60 and 80% less than today. Keep in mind that globally, Solar PV systems are today, already the cheapest energy generator in our history. All other fossil based generation, just keeps on getting more expensive by the year. The Joule could have been great and benefitted both SA and Eskom.

Someone on here also mentioned the Joule…
It was created, designed and manufactured (pilot manufacturing only) in SA. Tesla’s Roadster had just been launched in 2010 IIRC.

This was Optimal Energy’s Website late 2011.




IMG_1615

The Joule Specifications

  • Length - 3.8 m (150 in)
  • Turning Circle - 10.2 m (33 ft)
  • Mass - 1,200 kg (2,646 lb)
  • Seats - Five
  • Boot space - 700 L (25 cu ft)
  • Top Speed - Governed at 135 km/h (84 mph)
  • Acceleration - 0–60 km/h in less than 5 sec
  • Range - 150 km (93 mi) to 300 km (186 mi)
  • Charge time - The battery has a nominal recharge time of 10–12 hours

Closure

A small pilot fleet of Joules was manufactured in conjunction with Hi-Tech Automotive in Port Elizabeth during 2010. The car was expected to be sold in South Africa as well as Europe from 2014, but production ceased in April 2012 after Optimal Energy failed to find a commercial partner. Optimal Energy announced its intention to close down in June 2012. It was widely reported in the media that the company was bleeding cash, the production date had been pushed back four times, and the proposed sales figures were unrealistic. Optimal Energy required more than R2bn to bring the model to production, by which time it would have been obsolete. With the private sector unwilling to invest, the government declined to commit more taxpayers’ money to an enterprise which was not commercially viable.

Battery

Energy is supplied by a modular, large-cell, lithium-ion battery pack with sufficient capacity to provide a nominal range of 300km.

Brakes

A regenerative braking system for normal driving is used whereby energy recovered with this system goes back into the battery, adding to the car’s range. Four ventilated disk brakes with ABS for emergency braking come standard.

Body

The body consists of a steel space frame with a combination of composite (glass and carbon) and plastic body panels. Side impact protection is provided by high strength steel cross-bars in the doors.

Chassis

The chassis is a flat wafer structure and is the key to Joule’s spacious and versatile interior. The chassis comprises front and rear crumple zones, the batteries and electronics bays; it also provides attachment points for the suspension.

Integrated Vehicle Computer

A uniquely integrated computer developed from EV specific architecture controls all Joule’s onboard systems. Every battery cell is monitored independently to ensure optimal performance and durability of the battery. An integrated, programmable onboard charger ensures that no external charging infrastructure is required and that charging can be synchronised with off-peak electricity.

Propulsion

Joule incorporates a powerful traction motor with a single speed gearbox for front-wheel drive. From a driving experience the vehicle is completely automatic.

Packaging

Joule was imagineered as a battery electric vehicle from the outset. No compromises were made for the legacy engine or gearbox related influences in the design and layout, providing optimal interior space with minimal exterior footprint.

Performance

Joule, the optimal solution for urban transport sports fast acceleration from a standstill, motorway compatible speed with a top speed of 135 km/h, a tight turning circle, short wheel base and small front and rear overhangs offering a pleasurable driving experience in the modern city environment.

Safety

Joule is designed to UN-ECE safety standards, and includes all modern safety features such as side impact protection, ABS and airbags.

Styling

Joule’s body and interior styling was designed by Keith Helfet. With its simple, elegant lines and self assured stance Joule has a timeless appeal setting it apart from the crowd.

Suspension

The suspension provides a safe, comfortable driving experience, specifically tailored for urban use. The front suspension consists of McPherson struts, whilst the rear suspension employs a semi-independent trailing twist beam system.

I was looking forward to the Joule being launched. I think it was just a few years ahead of the time else it would have been a big hit if they could do all what they wanted.

Ok, back to on topic and Escamsters…

The EAF was at 67% in 2019, guess where we at now?

The performance and availability of Eskom’s power stations has declined from above 90% (see the grey Actual line) in the early 2000s to an average of 64% in the 2021 financial year. That translates into generation availability of 64.19% of design capacity (according to ESI Africa on 1 Sept 21), or you can look at that as the capacity left after planned and unplanned downtime.

This is insanity…

Already in 2015, Solar PV in SA (Utility scale plant) was cheaper than anything else, and we want to add single digit percentage Solar PV to the mix by 2030…

It is amazing how history (recent at that) proves that most people, even the best and most clever ones, get the future vision and predictions wrong.

The below graph represents in black, the actual add-on of Solar PV versus the coloured lines each yer for the predictions by the International Energy Agency… And each and every year the best brains cannot see their piss poor linear prediction of last and previous years, so they keep on making the same mistake.

And the below is why they keep making such stupid and idiotic mistakes. Look at the time it took cars to disrupt horse drawn buggies. Or look at Air travel…

We are in for some astounding change in a few short years. Our energy situation in SA and the disruption of EVs are going to be bad for us. Not because its bad, but because we taking bad info and making bad choices about the future, today.

When Tesla started, the Roadsters battery pack was costing about $1000 /kWh. Today the cost in the Tesla Model 3 is about $100 /kWh or 10x less. On issue on the horizon is the demand for battery cells. Today, as more and more car manufacturers are planning for more EVs, that will require many many more battery cells for battery packs. I can foresee that some price pressure will come to bear on prices for battery cells. Non EV demand may struggle for supply.

Look at the players in the market: Some of the majors operating in this market include Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) , BYD Co. Ltd, Duracell Inc., EnerSys, GS Yuasa Corporation, Clarios, LG Chem Ltd, Panasonic Corporation, Saft Groupe SA, Samsung SDI Co. Ltd, Sony Corporation, Tesla, Inc., and TianJin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock Co. Ltd.

A number of these OEMs either produce EVs or have very large percentages of their contracts with EV OEMs. The stationary battery market for Utility grids, are still in its infancy and very profitable and growing rapidly. This is another sector alongside EVs that will in future consume large amounts of cells. This will leave residential Solar with some difficulty and little choice for batteries.

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ICE car OEMs going bankrupt… The biggest of them VW group, are loosing sales, and their own internal predictions indicate a loss of 25% of staff by 2030. Wonder what may happen if this snowball hits lesser companies… Well guess it’s predictable, they will collapse under their debt and lack of sales. That will leave us here in SA, and likely the rest of Africa in a real predicament. All the local production for those going bankrupt will close, with a loss a f jobs, and no more exports. Not that any other country would want ICE cars, by then ICE will be banned from imports.

Well, consider this. The normal dinosaur juice based fuels (its called Fossil fuels for reasons) you have to pay for in perpetuity. Its consumption based, you pay to consume. With RE types you pay for the infrastructure, the energy is essentially a free byproduct ;) You pays, your choice when and for how long…

https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2019/10/the-next-few-years-will-be-exciting-in-africa.html

E-Cars and the switch to electromobility are currently on everyone’s lips in Germany and Europe. How is the situation on the African continent?

The South African government has so far been rather reluctant to do so. Unfortunately, the electricity supply is unstable. And the long distances between cities, make the population and the government doubt that the issue of e-mobility will be treated as a priority. Through the Automobile Association, however, we are engaged in an intensive dialogue with the government in order to bring more movement on the issue. After all, as a production location that is heavily dependent on exports, we cannot lag behind technologically. There is already more movement in other African countries: At the end of October, for example, we will launch our e-mobility initiative in Rwanda, with 50 e-Golfs1 as part of our mobility services – driven by the strong focus of some African countries on environmental protection and the high cost of fossil fuels, which have to be imported from the Middle East at high prices. They must not forget: Africa has many sustainable energy sources such as wind, gas and certainly sun.

Hahahaha as if the CancER ever listened to anybody, this ain’t the EU folks. Talk is cheap, look at the Taxes on EVs: Price — EVs attract 45% in import taxes and duties. Administratively, with the stroke of a pen, EVs kept out… This is a deliberate act, not an oversight, not an incentive…

This was in 2019. for perspective: “The minister of transport, Blade Nzimande, updated that information in March 2019 and said that there are a total of 867 EVs registered in the country.”

In 2018: New data from analytics group Lightstone shows that 375 electric vehicles have been sold in South Africa since the inception of electrically powered vehicles (EV) in the country.

And in 2020: A total of 92 electric vehicles were sold in South Africa in 2020, representing just 0.02% of sales in the domestic automotive market.

There Mr Diess…

So maybe the hybrid comes into play again? Or hydrogen? Something with a tank that can you fill fairly quickly.

Two points here:

  1. Hybrid cars are an abomination, twice as many powertrains for more money and more complexity. Still need to service the car ala normally, unlike BEVs that need almost no service. Far more things to go wrong. Added weight and reduced space.

  2. For Hydrogen, the Physics don’t add up. More energy is needed to isolate hydrogen from natural compounds than can ever be recovered from its use, because physics. Less than 25% of energy input is available as output. BEVs are closer to 70%

HydrogenChart.jpg.490fdf811f36074d58840dfdbc5d85a0

Most of the pertinent stuff now lives here :slight_smile: Done with this one copied…

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Hyundai closes engine development….
So the center and people there will be designing new EV powertrains, RiP ICE…. For the Hyundai car group, including Kia.

Groetnis

Found this interesting read:

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Very interesting.

I can only imagine the chaos in dear old SA with Escam.

Here is an interesting stat I read. It is for some US state, but it is still something to keep in mind.

We use a sizeable proportion of energy to refine petroleum into products our vehicles can use. The move away from ICE to EV, will in some respects be a transition. We’ll get some of that energy back…