Eskom ... is there ANY chance? In CPT there is

[plonkster]

@Sarel.Wagner

This is not a comprehension issue

What I am lamenting is people’s inability to understand. Not only the ones in power, but the ones who are voting for them. If you listen to that interview De Ruyter had with ENCA, his words was specifically that the money is BETTER spent elsewhere. Never did he say you cannot fix up an old coal station and make it run a bit longer…

Of course, if you’ve seen that interview with Jordan Peterson and Kathy Newman, on the BBC, that’s the frustration you feel. That “so you’re saying a power station only lasts 50 years”… moment, which is kinda sorta what was said, but also not exactly… no, what he said was “this thing was designed to last 50 years, and after 50 years it becomes more expensive to keep it running to the money is better spent elsewhere”… which, you know, has just the right amount of nuance that it doesn’t fit into a tweet, and therefore not in the concentration span of what appears to be the average ANC voter…

(Sorry… hate to generalise, and I admit that is a very big one, but it frustrates me).

[TheTerribleTriplet]

Electricity minister asks China for help to fight load-shedding

Ramokgopa recently met with the Chinese Ambassador to South Africa to discuss areas of collaboration to end the rolling blackouts.

He highlighted five potential areas where the countries could collaborate.

• Sourcing technical expertise.
• Demand-side management intervention as it relates to supply.
• Training young people to meet demands for Solar PV installations.
• Introducing micro-grids.
• Emergency power.

O my word …

[Sarel.Wagner]

The emergency is ripe for picking…

Groetnis

[TheTerribleTriplet]

Failing State? Corporate SA counts the cost of impact of worsening rolling...

South Africa’s corporate giants had a rough few days as they started to detail the negative impact of rolling blackouts, the country’s weak economy and President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ineffective Cabinet on their operations, which sparked a costly share bloodbath on the JSE.

About R1-trillion was wiped off the value of shares on the JSE in seven days, with the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index falling by as much as 3.2%.

Globally, investors are worried about the stability of the banking system after three commercial banks ­collapsed in the US, sparking fears of a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis. But locally, investors are worried about the warnings from companies, including MTN, Absa, Old Mutual, MultiChoice (owner of DStv), Transaction Capital (provider of loans to the taxi industry) and TFG (a retailer), that economic conditions in South Africa are worsening.

TFG says rolling blackouts cost it at least R1-billion in lost sales during the past 11 months.

Shoprite, was forced to spend R560-million on diesel to power its stores during the six months to 1 January 2023, which is R465-million more than it spent in the comparable period in the previous year.

Pick n Pay is spending R60-million a month to run diesel generators to keep the lights on.

“Without irrigation, farmers would be dependent on rainfall to water their crops, making them vulnerable to load shedding and causing damage to irrigation systems when the electricity supply is unreliable. This already has a loss of income for farmers due to crop failure and a reduction in agricultural productivity,” Agri SA wrote.

Rolling blackouts have shaved off R695-million from MTN’s earnings for the year ending 2022, as the telecommunications giant had to spend more money on generators and back-up battery storage, which power its cellphone towers during blackouts.

Vodacom has also spent a lot of money to keep its network going during power outages. It was forced to spend a record R5.8-billion on its local network and buying back-up power during the first six months of 2022.

But the company’s patience is wearing thin. Vodacom said it could not continue to invest billions of rands in back-up power ­systems if the electricity crisis continued to worsen, especially in the case of a national power blackout.

Standard Bank’s ­diesel costs ballooned by 300% from R18-million in 2021 to R72-million in 2022.

FNB said the cost of running its banking operations increased by more than 500% to R40-million during the six months to December 2022, from R6-million over the same period in 2021. Nedbank spent R59-million buying diesel to power its operations in 2022. And Absa said, depending on the load shedding stage, it expected to spend between R200-million and R350-million on diesel in 2023 and 2024.

And this is for 2022 …

With viruses spreading, one watches the Life Insurers.
With other stuff one watches the short-term insurers for when they make moves.
But o boy, when the last core of the world i.e. the banks and/or big retail starts reporting serious figures, then the “gloves come off”.

[PJJ]

@TheTerribleTriplet

maybe start a new thread to share and debate the pros and cons of immigrating vs more panels?

I have had that internal discussion with myself over and over again for the past 7 odd years, and every time I just get back to: Well for the time being I am still better off here.
Obviously a grid collapse will change that

[plonkster]

@PJJ

had that internal discussion with myself over and over again for the past 7 odd years

This is what some commenters call the “boiling the frog” effect, slowly heating the water so you don’t notice.

(Not to spoil things, but someone actually tested if this is true, and it isn’t. The frog jumps out).

[PJJ]

@plonkster

(Not to spoil things, but someone actually tested if this is true, and it isn’t. The frog jumps out).

I am quite familiar with the “boiling frog effect” I was however not aware that someone actually tested it!
Good on the frog!
I too like to think that I will be “clever” enough to know when enough is enough and call it a day, lets hope hubris doesn’t get the best of me

[Robert]

So I ask one of the ‘better off’ persons in our rural town…'why do you think LS went from stage 4 to stage 1 in a day…
The answer…because Malema is marching today.

NohopeGroetnis

(Sorry Sarel)

[mmaritz]

@PJJ

Not sure if I should by more panels

I bought more panels…40% more…

[plonkster]

@Robert

because Malema is marching today

Speaking of which. I understand why the EFF called it a national shutdown. Because that is truly what they hoped to achieve. I find it somewhat disheartening that the media ran with the same term. That gave it more credit than it was due. It wasn’t really a national shutdown. It was an EFF protest.

[TheTerribleTriplet]

@PJJ

I have had that internal discussion with myself over and over again for the past 7 odd years, and every time I just get back to: Well for the time being I am still better off here.
Obviously a grid collapse will change that

My take:

1. Stay in SA, it is going to get worse, live through it, may not be as bad as immigrating overseas.
2. Immigrate if you have the money + skills required for ones new home but don’t expect it to be easy to integrate there, if at all. The good news is, the kids will however become new citizens with ease.

The least thought-of option …
3) Consider “immigrating” to say like say i.e. Cape Town … at least you keep your pension and medical aid.

[plonkster]

Had a conversation with the boss today (not the wife, the other one). Namibia is not off the table for me. And, it turns out, they are not nearly as dependent on Eskom as people want you to believe. Apparently they import far less than a third of their energy from SA these days, plus the additional plans for solar will likely make them mostly independent from SA by 2035.

[TheTerribleTriplet]

@plonkster

Namibia is not off the table for me.

In your case, it is like moving back home … and it is a beautiful stable country to boot.

But dang, it can get lonely. Had clients there for years … no comparison to Cpt if you are not born and bred there.

What most of our friends that immigrated say, having moved overseas, it is EXPENSIVE and difficult to integrate with the locals.

Geez, Tvl’ers and Capies … they don’t even integrate easily.

[jykenmynie]

Indeed. The EFF gets free publicity for what in reality was always going to be damp squib. If the taxi bosses do not want to play along, I write off any supposed “shutdown”. It will be, as you say, a protest.

Now us going from Stage 4/6 to Stage 1/0, I’ve yet to read a good explanation for what actually happened, but if all the sabotage stories were true (which I believe they was), then naturally it was going to stop when De Ruyter left. So effectively you bought the screaming toddler the lollypop, kicking the ball of good parenting down the road to try again another day.

[jykenmynie]

I have many friends and colleagues overseas, they all say the same thing: SA is beautiful and you can have a much better life here than there. This is UK, US, AUS, NZ, SG, probably missing a few.

I find that UK ones back here annually. This is where they choose to spend their holidays. The others are a little far for quick trips. My sister is in NZ at the moment, visiting now in May for the first time in three years. It is very expensive living there, and flights aren’t as cheap as what it used to be.

And, don’t fool yourself, WhatsApp video call isn’t the same as sitting around a table with your loved ones. We lie to ourselves that a video call will solve all our heartache. It does not. It is awkward and not better than a normal call. In fact, it is worse. I don’t care how my sister looks, it adds nothing to our conversation. But we can’t actually share experiences.

For me, it would need to get a hell of a lot worse here before I’m willing to say to myself, “Alright, this is it, I’m going. Probably going to see my mother 10 times before she passes away, but this is a sacrifice I’m willing to make.” (And yes, it is a highly selfish “sacrifice” since my mom had to get me to where I am today, but I’m leaving her when she needs me most)

To make it clear, I don’t judge people that leave. Everybody’s situation is different. I’m fortunate to have three grandparents still alive, all my parents, uncles and aunts. I have an excellent, professional job, that keeps me on and ahead of my international colleagues in terms of skills. To leave SA, even though I can do so relatively quickly through the company I’m working for, is not an obvious option. My requirements for staying here are:

1. To be able to provide food for my family
2. To be able to ensure safety and a good home for my family
3. To be able to afford good healthcare for my family
4. To be able to give my kids a good education

The only one that can change in the foreseeable future is number 3 if the NHI comes in. That would give me a year or two to settle my things here and move. However, then it also excludes the UK and other countries with socialised healthcare. The horror stories that friends have told me from their experiences of the NHI for anything but the most mundane of medical issues is enough to make me steer well clear.

[Richard_Mackay]

I think it’s accepted now that your retirement funding needs to be overseas if it is to grow as desired. Fortunately it’s a lot easier to do this than when I was sending out R10k with every friend that was travelling overseas. But I figured that this step would allow me to carry on living in SA and so far this is working…

[Sarel.Wagner]

I smell some dead dinosaur… I would love to know how?

Groetnis

[TheTerribleTriplet]

Would really love to know how they did this … Yelland takes great pains to say there is no “proof” that it is because of a reduction in criminal activity. He also says this “improvement” must be measured over months, a year preferably.

Me, that is the only thing that makes sense, that the sabotage has stopped so repairs are done and they stay fixed.

Ps. it is also reported that De Ruyter is “gone/missing”. No one knows where he’s at. Well done to him.

[Sarel.Wagner]

Agree, do not buy the less crime wool story. My money is on straight lying, bodgin the numbers, or likely a combination of and reducing the reserve capacity.

WatnogoorisGroetnis