Just have a think, ICE cars EVs and power generation

eMobility (EV's, etc)
141

I do not know what the reduction will be for ICE cars, but looking at how many places have banned them outright, or banned the import thereof between 2030 and 2035, the writing is on the wall.

Our exports will collapse. What will happen to local production, who knows. Maybe we can still export into Africa, or maybe everybody will dump the old ICE cars in Africa and we cannot sell new due to price and an over abundance of used at far cheaper.

Maybe we can keep the factories running for a few more years, maybe the OEMs close them because of the financial losses, there will be some point this becomes the reality.

Imports from China, not tax rebates because of no exports, no reduction in tax either, who knows. Maybe we revive the Joule or create something new locally. Or maybe we all get fit for walking or running everywhere and win the Olimpics outright :man_facepalming:t2::man_shrugging:

We need some things to change locally, and I do not see that happening soon, or anybody talking about that anywhere. It sure would help.

Groetnis

142

Here I am a little more up-beat. I think the manufacturers are keeping their cards close to their chests, but I expect a surprise announcement at some point that a certain model will be built at a certain plant. A long time ago I had a family member who worked in Toyota’s Durban plant. I knew, about a year before most other people and even before the TV ads came out, that a new SUV called the Fortuner was coming, because Toyota was retrofitting their lines for it.

There is a sudden influx of new Hybrids from Toyota too, and the Corolla Cross Hybrid is getting rave reviews. There is also talk of their new “solid state” batteries coming to a Hybrid car first. That might well mean that the parts we need to build a small EV might available in SA within the next 5 years, which means we might even make the 2030 or 2035 deadline.

I’m not a fan of banning technologies. I would rather that they legislate the required outcome. As an analogy, instead of banning incandescent lamps in favour of LEDs, why not mandate a certain efficiency level? Instead of banning ICE in favour of EV, why not mandate a certain carbon emissions level? If a Manufacturer can do it with Hydrogen, then let them! That’s how you incentivise innovation.

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Hydrogen, some info:
The conversion of feedstock into Hydrogen is not efficient, in the order of 80-85% at best mostly. Charging and then consuming the energy from batteries are more efficient, so it makes more sense to just use batteries. Overall conversion efficiency, including the leakage in gas in pipes and by transport is another concern, apart from worsening the efficiencies of Hydrogen.

Lots of modern life makes use of hydrogen, it’s essential. In cars, me thinks not so much, maybe in trucks for goods transport, time will tell.

From Wikipedia for what that is worth….
Hydrogen production is the family of industrial methods for generating hydrogen gas. As of 2020, the majority of hydrogen (∼95%) is produced from fossil fuels by steam reforming of natural gas and other light hydrocarbons, partial oxidation of heavier hydrocarbons, and coal gasification.[1][2] Other methods of hydrogen production include biomass gasification, zero-CO2-emission methane pyrolysis, and electrolysis of water. The latter processes, methane pyrolysis as well as water electrolysis can be done directly with any source of electricity, such as solar power.

The production of hydrogen plays a key role in any industrialized society, since hydrogen is required for many essential chemical processes.[3]In 2020, roughly 87 million tons of hydrogen was produced[4] worldwide for various uses, such as oil refining, and in the production of ammonia(NH3) (through the Haber process) and methanol (CH3OH) (through reduction of carbon monoxide [CO]), and also as a fuel in transportation. The hydrogen generation market was expected to be valued at US$115.25 billion in 2017.[5]

Electrolysis consists of using electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. Electrolysis of water is 70–80% efficient (a 20–30% conversion loss)[30][31] while steam reforming of natural gas has a thermal efficiency between 70–85%.[32] The electrical efficiency of electrolysis is expected to reach 82–86%[33] before 2030, while also maintaining durability as progress in this area continues at a pace.[34]

There is currently no infrastructure in the World to support transportation to use Hydrogen, there are most places, tho some limited, to support BEVs.

Groetnis

144

Fully aware. And it may be a dead end. But I still say legislate the desired result, not the means. If the challenge is insurmountable, the tech will vote with its feet, all on its own.

145

I’ll maybe get me a BMW Hindenberg.
A bit louder than my present “Old banger” methinks.

1 Like
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Hmmmm :thinking:

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Almost everything on the left is declining, and most on the right ie. BEVs are increasing.

Groetnis

148

And annual Global sales. Significant is how much overall sales are down since 2017….

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And the Sehol baby
Edit: about $19.5k starting

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And I guess the kicker is this for USA:

Ford sold 1.9 million vehicles, down 6.8% from 2020. That maintained its third-place U.S. sales position behind General Motors and Toyota Motor, which dethroned GM in U.S. sales after a 90-year run as the No. 1 American automaker.

And Globally:

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Refres the relative Ford and Tesla positions in the World of production numbers
https://energytalk.co.za/uploads/default/original/2X/3/35f49f184ae68d1705ab57dfb4c642985d4d9a84.jpeg

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By my reckoning, sometime in 2024, Tesla will produce as much or more cars than Ford, Worldwide. The profit for Tesla will likely be twice that of Fords for producing the same number of units.

Groetnis
PS:I currently drive a Ford SUV. I also still own VW, Chevy, Land Rover and have owned Datsun, Merc and Jaguars as well.

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The motor industry manufacturers will determine how fast the transition happens. The African market will have a tiny effect on their decisions due to it being relatively small.
The incandescent light bulb is not manufactured any more so there’s no need to force the change to energy efficient lighting.

154

Should we do some critical thinking, the Global supply chain is kinda broken, have been infected by politics and further crippled by bugs and of late a War.

When we look at our own security of supply, we have to have the basics, and the most basic is energy, energy talk members, tic :white_check_mark: Just look at the panic in the EU over supply currently, and even the USA because of pricing.

Energy independence, self sufficiency and a continuous supply is security, as without energy, we do not have security of anything. If someone controls your energy supply, they control you. If you depend on another country to supply your energy, as a people, you would do anything, and panic, if your energy supply is under threat.

As a species, we are very dependent for our survival and prosperity on energy, and most of that energy is derived from fossilised sources. Yet, politically and ideologically, the collective west is waging a war against fossilised fuels, it makes no sense….

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One of the main ways to consume energy is via Electricity :zap:

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And here we can see how we fit in the Global picture.

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Whom ever will concur the new World’s energy flows and supply, be that whatever mix between fossilised and renewables including Nuclear, will be mighty in more ways than one.

Groetnis met lekker baie draadloose son energie vandag :sun_with_face:

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I have a boet in the UK…
They are under the hammer and no end in sight… Energy price: Bill shock for millions as rises hit - BBC News

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" About 22 million households will see their annual bills increase to about £2,000 ($2,626) after the UK’s energy regulator lifted its price cap by 54% — the biggest jump since it began limiting price increases in 2017. The cap sets a limit on the maximum price suppliers can charge per unit of energy." Energy prices: UK bills rise by record 54% - CNN

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Incandescents here

Groetnis

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Insightful indeed….

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Groetnis

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And NAAMSA figures for SA

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And where we are from a global pov.

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Groetnis

159

Well aware. It was an example of what some policy makers did back in the day, which I disagree with. They legislated the tech instead of the outcome.

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Canada, also referred to by locals as Canukistan, mandating Zero emission vehicles by law:

New mandate for ZEVs as they refer to them now

In a major announcement featuring three cabinet ministers in three provinces, the federal government says it is making 100 per cent ZEV sales mandatory by 2035 to meet Canada’s national net-zero targets, bringing the national market goal in line with Quebec and California pledges

Canada’s federal government is replacing its voluntary target for achieving 100 per cent zero-emission new car and light-truck sales with a mandatory requirement and moving up the deadline by five years, to 2035 from 2040.

The joint announcement came today from Transport minister Omar Alghabra, Minister of Environment and Climate Change Jonathan Wilkinson and Minister of Canadian Heritage Steven Guilbeault. During the press conference Alghabra cited, as a catalyst for the announcement, a recent report from the International Energy Agency that says by 2035 all, new light-duty vehicle sales worldwide need to be electric to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Groetnis