Past behaviour and all that predicts about future behaviour and ideology to boot 
VoortrekkerGroetnis
It is the true visionary who sees that, knows that, understands that, and works very hard to not fall for that human trait every time.
One of my favourite sayings is: I would love to agree with you, but there is no point in both of us being wrong.
Food for thoughtâŚ.
From 2022 annual report by VW.
VEHICLE PRODUCTION LOCATIONS OF THE VOLKSWAGEN GROUP
Predicted to be the first domino, given all the other issues.
Share of total production 2022 in %
DominoGroetnis
The scale of the Debt issue: Stats some of youâs favourite topic 
https://gfmag.com/data/companies-largest-debt-world/
Toyota Nr 1 out of all globals, not just Automotive
VauW in spot Nr 3
The Blue Oval Nr 6
Edit: And Tesla, actually almost Debt Free!
DebtfreeGroetnis
And VW said:
Schaefer said there were no current plans to introduce EV manufacturing in South Africa, since electric cars are currently priced out of the reach of most domestic consumers. Producing them for export would not be environmentally sustainable, he said.
BlackoutindonkerAfrikaGroetnis
The US not ready yet to embrace EVsâŚ
Too much in love with cheap gasoline??
Blind reporter and editor I would wager, or extremely biased maybe, no? And Q4 is not on there yetâŚ.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/
IdiotieseGroetnis
The US has many factors that affect these things.
- Really large distances. Not everywhere, but if you think Cape Town is far from Johannesburg (same distance as London to Warsaw, which is like several countries), then consider that that is just what it takes to get across Texas.
- Real estate prices means people donât stay close to work. Actually not unlike Johannesburg.
- Except in the larger cities, there really isnât much in the way of trains, like youâd have in Europe.
- The dealership model is weird. Laws protect dealers in a way that is foreign to us. Dealers have a lot of power in deciding what they want to sell, and ordering directly from the factory is not necessarily on the table.
- Gasoline is indeed comparatively cheap.
- 400 years ago they moved to that patch of land because they thought their government was out to get them (they were probably not wrong). Many of them still think that, and anything new is seen in that light.
- Interest rates are going up. People genuinely have trouble affording new stuff, including cars.
A little context:
So, EV sales may be âstagnantâ, but they are still becoming a much larger proportion of vehicle sales.
The entire US new car market is in decline - except for EVs which are still growing.
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But for the biggest economy in the world to buy 50% of what the Europe buys is a bad startâŚ
It would be interesting to see the sales of hybrids in the US.
I asked my broer in California why they are so slow on the EV uptake. This is his response:
Biden does not want to give subsidies to cars using batteries from China. There are other issues like standing in line to get a charge where they are popular like in Silicon valley. They say hybrids are better as most folks donât need to be dragging a few tons of batteries around town. Then where is the power going to come from? California and other states have stopped net metering so now it takes more than 20 years to pay for PVâs by which time the things are dying. Our power costs more than twice as much as other states thanks to our private utility.
The latest is to put new pool motors on all pools that turn off during peak demand. Ya we are all in the kak!
This only started a few months ago, so no impact on past sales. The rest is believable.
Effectively GM has had abysmal sales, and lots of issues with most of their EVs. Ford is doing better tho. But compared to Tesla, yikes.
GroeindeGroetnis
I wonder to what extent he even CAN give such subsidies. Things done by a previous president has some staying power, and they are in long-term trade war with China. He probably cannot give subsidies without angering a whole lot of people (some of whom probably votes for him). This is a total guess, but given the state of US/China relations, probably a good one.
When it comes to renewable generation, from what I can gather, installation cost is twice what it is elsewhere in the world, and the competition is half what it is elsewhere in the world, so it does take 4 times longer than anywhere else.
Compare cost of a solar water heater in the US. Up to $4000 according to a quick google. Thatâs three quarters of the way to 100k ZAR. I could install a pretty nice system for half that. A heat pump in the US, at least $3500. Thatâs at least double what we pay here.
Some states give good subsidies on such technologies, but throwing subsidies at overpriced stuff? Weird.
Now consider how much a solar water heater is in Israel (as one prime minister said: Moses led us to the one place in the middle east without oil): 2800 to 3500 schekels, thatâs about 900 USD.
âFree marketâ at its best comes to mind.
Time for a reset maybe?
the complete white paper. @Sarel.Wagner local EV production addressed in chapter 4.
for more reading, the NAAMSA discussion document on the white paper.
Still struggling to read the Patel paper.
On NAAMSA, bunch of fluff, first 30 or so pages, is just transition this, co2 that, ESG everything. Farking hell, it sounds like the green new deal wrote this on behalf of naamsaâŚ.
Nothing, and I mean Nothing of substance of how this is to be done to get to EVs. Just investment of about R300+ Billion in SA manufacturing. No timelines of what naamsa members will invest, no Randelas to be spent, nada.
My peoples 
we gonna be in the dwang.
NogDominoesGroetnis
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Totally agree⌠no domestic focus at all till 2030!!!
Like new investment in Harbours and Rail, I mean really, since 2017, rehashed for 2023⌠Meantime the wrong locomotives, collapse of the rail system, more than 100 000 containers that sit and wait on the sea. Some carriers bypass SA and go offload in Hawaii, we have to maak n plan to get em back here. How long does just the awarding of contracts take, a few years. And building infra, 10-15 maybe???
Yea we gonna be ready in 2025 for sureâŚ
MaaknplanGroetnis
I share Sarelâs sentiments.
Just one errata ⌠My peoples we are in the dwang.
EDIT: But an election is coming to a voting booth near you ⌠soon.