Just have a think, ICE cars EVs and power generation

eMobility (EV's, etc)
946

Lets get some Tesla Semi numbers, this from

In the video, which was produced by the North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE), only representatives of PepsiCo and the local energy provider Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) are interviewed, while Tesla representatives do not weigh in.

The camera in the NACFE video is pointed at the latter 21. It confirms that the Sacramento location has installed four Tesla chargers with a charging capacity of 750 kW each. They are supposed to allow charging to 80 per cent in less than 45 minutes. Elsewhere in the video, it is said that the Semi can charge from 5-10 per cent to 95 per cent in 20 to 30 minutes.

PepsiCo uses 18 of the 21 Tesla Semis for deliveries within a 100-mile radius (about 161 kilometres) with multiple stops ā€“ in shifts of up to twelve hours. According to Amanda DeVoe, Transformation and Strategy Director at PepsiCo, using electric vehicles for these short trips between the companyā€™s bottling warehouse in Sacramento and delivery locations is particularly useful. However, according to Dejan Antunovic, head of the electrification programme at PepsiCo, the remaining three units will definitely be used for long distances of 250 to 450 miles (about 400 to 725 kilometres). Tesla officially says the electric truck has a range of 500 miles (over 800 kilometres) when fully loaded.

And from another article:
It takes less than half an hour to top up a Tesla Semi electric rig to 95% battery capacity on the dedicated 750kW Megacharger stations that Pepsi uses for them, says one Semi driver. The trucks run for 12 hours a day, according to the beverage giant, while some go on trips that are as long as 450 miles.

Groetnis

947

Been pondering on this for a good while. Question timeā€¦.

As far as I could find, we make no electric motors in SA any longer. Also no Lithium type batteries nor Phosphate types, all imported. We have the ability to do control electronics, so making inverters and controllers should be possible.

This donā€™t have a good prognoses for building EVs cost effectively locally?

WondermaarGroetnis

948

Again, I am hoping that BYD venture, which I know is very much in the ā€œdiscussions with governmentā€ phase, will lead to something good.

BYD has an entire EV-battery division now, called FinDreams.

Iā€™m in two minds about this.

The way I see it: Reducing carbon emissions is a process, not an event. The process itself, is then also agreed upon between (some) nations, and legislated (in some). So there isnā€™t a single target to meet in 2050, there are multiple targets along the way.

Toyota is saying ā€“ this is how I understand it ā€“ that a move to hybrid may not be final answer, but it gets us on the way a lot sooner. They are frankly, if I understand this correctly, right.

They are also missing the boat, I think. At least for passenger vehicles, which is the only place hybrids play a role for them right now. The time window within which a hybrid makes sense, isnā€™t very big. Itā€™s maybe about a decade, and that is being generous. Now listening to some of you folk here, and I certainly include myself in this for one of my vehicles: How many of you have decided to hold on to your old cars until youā€™ve fully established which way the cat is jumping, and what it will cost?

We can discuss hybrids as much as we like, but which one of us will go out TODAY and buy one?

I have a feeling that is the problem. The market to which hybrids may appeal, is also the market who will rather hold on a bit. The futuristic early-adopter EV people, on the other hand, reject it for precisely the same reason they reject ICE.

It is the neglected middle-child.

949

How much manufacture is there in SA for ICE vehicles, and how much is just assembly?

As far as I can see, there are only 2 engine manufacture plants in SA, and they specialise in specific engine models (for export and local use) - all other engines are imported. All electronics are imported. Most mechanical subassemblies are imported. etc. We hardly even refine any petrol locally anymore.

So it would not be much of a difference?

3 Likes
950

All trucks in cities must go 100% EV in my opinion.
Cars in cities must also ideally go EV.

But heavy trucks over long distances - 100s of ā€œmilesā€ per trip, in lieu of operational electric trains ā€¦

If there are enough chargers along the road vs how many fuel depots vs how long does it take to fill a truck with diesel.

Read this article about drivers doing the analysis cause trucking in like the USA is driven very hard by time spent to refuel vs driving earning money, looking for an open charge station.

As @plonkster says, and Iā€™m 100% in agreement, ā€œneglected middle-childā€ this diesel/electric until the right tech for the right purpose arrives.

Me, if I had the money today, I would, for fun/Hobby, build a diesel/electric. Skills are a wee bit lacking for my 'risk profile" though in SA. City driving 100% EV. The same vehicle goes out of the city on longer trips, a hybrid. Methinks you hit multiple factors in one repurposing of an existing vehicle, carbon has been spent.

Feedback:
Unimog, the tires are too expensive (my story).

The real reasons are the Code 10 driverā€™s license, and parking ā€¦ yeah, the wife said one word after listening attentively. It was NO! :slight_smile:

951
952
953

Price
The South African pricing and model line-up for the new GWM Ora 03 are as follows:

  • GWM Ora 03 300 Super Luxury ā€“ R686,950
  • GWM Ora 03 400 Super Luxury ā€“ R775,950
  • GWM Ora 03 400 Ultra Luxury ā€“ R805,950
  • GWM Ora 03 400 GT Ultra Luxury ā€“ R835,950

The 300 variant uses a 48kWh lithium-ion phosphate battery that can provide a total driving range of 310km, while the 400 variant uses a 63kWh nickel-manganese cobalt battery that can push the range up to 420km (400km on the GT Ultra Luxury).

ā€œTaking into consideration a rate of around R3.50 per kWh for AC home charging, it will cost an owner approximately R170 to R250 to fully charge his or her Gwm Ora 03,ā€ said GWM. ā€œUsing DC fast charging at a rate of R5.00 to R5.80 per kWh, the cost for a full charge will be around R250 to R300.ā€

954

The World is mad, lemme tell yaā€¦ for cooking sure.

5 Cheapest cars in SA all under R200K, and the message here is the cheapest electric is R486k more expensive, I am missing sorely the CHEAP in thatā€¦

ArmgatGroetnis

955

To be fair, I think those are the ONLY 5 under 200k. Three of them are Suzukis if I recall and one is a Renault. Forgot the details.

Then the Volvo EX30 (hailed as a ā€œmini Polestarā€ by some), at 776k, seems like the obvious one to go with. 51kWh LFP battery, vs the Oraā€™s 48kWh battery. Pretty well matched.

Edit: Having driven a Polestarā€¦ itā€™s no contest for me. Iā€™m taking the Volvoā€¦ when that ship comes in.

956

Ya missing the point. There is no way those are cars for Saffas, way way to expensive (overpriced luxury). When those prices gets down to within say 20-30% of cheapest, with comparable amenities and features, yessss

Groetnis

957

An EV is a lot simpler than a ICE version.
Letā€™s see if they become cheaperā€¦

958

Yeah, more like adding context to it and slightly pulling off in my own direction :slight_smile:

I donā€™t think it is fair to think of a 200k as some sort of yardstick for what a car should cost anymore. Cars are expensive. All of them. A decent family car is no less than 400k now. Most of us donā€™t buy them when they are new. We wait a few years and buy a good secondhand one.

Weā€™re going to do the same for EVs.

Now I hear you about how this isnā€™t for ā€œSaffasā€, but based on the number of Ford Rangers and Toyota Hiluxes and Fortuners I see in the former-model-C drop-off in the morningsā€¦ it isnā€™t like people donā€™t spend that kind of money on a car. Just not on this kind of car.

Henceā€¦ I think the gap is a lot smaller than we think.

959

There are some things, EV per se is less complex that ICE, no? Parts count is less. Should we look at the BOM, there would be less of it. If it is a small car, or be int a medium sized car, no matter at all.

Things like paint for entry level products should be about the same, again same for mid level or above entry level. Steel or whatever should be same about. Interior should be about the same. Say the have a similar trim level, should be about same for complete interior.

Lights, wheels, bumpers etc should be same. Now we get to them juicy bits. EV have no engine, no fuel tank, many less mechanical bits and connecting with many less, no gearbox, no fuel tank nor piping.

Yes EVs have cooling systems, radiator and granted the battery cooling/heating may cost a bit more. Wiring should be about the same, computer also, body and motor controllers. Combined the electric motor and inverter should be way way less than ICE engine and gearbox and drivetrain.

Then itā€™s just the battery, we know currently they still expensive, like quite a bit, but not by that much neā€¦

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Groetnis

960

Now I wonder ā€¦ why are the rest so ā€œexpensiveā€?

image
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ā€¦ the tech used.

961

Bad and mostly inefficient production, bad contracts that buy expensive materials, slow production processes, wasteful production processes, more expensive labour, etc.

Rivian van about the same cost per kWh as Ford, both Phosphate type by CATL.

EffektieweProduktieweGroetnis

962

Thatā€™s the big item, indeed. To use an example from home, the i3 has a 400V battery that consists of 8 modules. The modules can be replaced individually (this is never mentioned when an article hits the interwebz, telling you how much the whole pack is). The modules are however still quite expensive, at around 40k a pop. A whole pack is 300k. The car is worth maybe 400k if I am lucky :slight_smile:

As bad as that soundsā€¦ about 15 years ago I owned an E46. The car was worth about 80k. A turbo replacement was around 40k.

The common denominator in both cases, is weā€™re using dealer pricing. Nobody maintains an ICEV at the dealer once it leaves warranty. That makes comparisons notoriously difficult, with no real aftermarket existing for batteries yet.

In some way, the really long warranties the batteries have/had (8 years) is delaying the creation of such an aftermarket.

Anyone whoā€™s had a car that is a little too new and needed something that was not covered by motor/service-plan can tell you what a nightmare that can be. For me, it was brake disks, pads and wiper blades on a car that was 3 years oldā€¦ aftermarket had not caught on yet.

1 Like
963

Yeah, I donā€™t have that ā€¦ car that is valued at R120k and a new turbo is wot, R5k ā€¦ I pick them on purpose.

Car is like a tumble dryer or washing machine ā€¦ it must work and work well, and cost little to maintain.

Me: So Mr Salesman, what do the tires cost? A big service, like the 120k one?
Salesman: A lot of money ā€¦ but the services are covered by the maintenance plan.
Me: Can I fit XYZ tires then?
Salesman: No.
Me: So what do the services cost outside the maintenance plan?
Salesman: A lot of money ā€¦
Me: See ya later.

I buy a car that is affordable outside the maintenance plan, for two reasons:

  1. If you have to keep it.
  2. If you have to sell it.

This brings me to the costs of a new battery bank on an EV ā€¦ if that means I can drive the car for another ā€œlifetimeā€, then it makes sense. What else will cost that much on an EV to repair/maintain ā€¦ the next big question.

964

Take that Mustang battery at almost $7 000.00 for 70kWh in comparison to your Solar battery on a per kWh cost, fcuk the retail price is a total ripoff for the home use.

Groetnis

1 Like
965

I used to be that guy too. To some extent, I still am. It is one reason I picked both the Diesel Corolla and the RAV4 I have now, because their Turbos are comparatively cheap. Comparatively. It hasnā€™t been 5k for a really long time now. Ten years ago a Turbo swap was around 9k already. It has a relatively simple turbo with a vacuum actuator controlling the vanes (it reduces turbo lag by making the turbo ā€œsmallerā€ at lower RPMs, so it spools up faster). But I preferred this option because it was cheaper than the dual-turbo multi-phase whatever turbos the Euro-cars were using, which were four times more expensive.

But now if you think about itā€¦ 9k for a Turbo, on a car that (towards the end) sold for 65k. You see how, as a ratio, even a small item becomes a large portion of the carā€™s overall value?

Even your Suzy: 5k for a Turbo (which I think is extremely optimistic, even if it has no adjustable geometry), on a car that sells all week for 55k? Thatā€™s 10%, which is the same as one battery module vs the total worth of the i3.

People are being disingenuous with the ā€œif the battery goes the car is toastā€ arguments. It is not much worse than for ICEVs, if at all.