Eskom ... is there ANY chance? In CPT there is

[plonkster]

@Sarel.Wagner

good and bad is relative

Yes, but that is only half the story, I think. It’s like when we argue that not everything is black or white, that there are scales of grey. That is indeed so, but in recognising the grey, which is indeed somewhere between black and white, are we not implicitly acknowledging the black and the white extremes of the spectrum?

To be fair, I understand I am essentially outmatched here in terms of experience. Perhaps just trying to be a less cynical voice. Whatever that means.

Edit: After the serious negative bout of the previous weeks, you guys should appreciate this! (I mean that as a joke).

[mmaritz]

[Sarel.Wagner]

Plonk, that is fine, no beef with being positive, I fail that miserable sometimes. I will be here and remain here till my last drop of blood. But back to the regular programming.

Farkin hel, they now hiding the data, Eskom is, way way deep. Someone asked about the OCGTs…

EAF, the year is bad…

And look at the operating reserve margin, evaporated…

DataGroetnis

[Sarel.Wagner]

And lets compare same week last year:
2022 Week27

2023 Week27

EDIT: Every week compared to year ago is worse, tells a story.
Groetnis

[TheTerribleTriplet]

Check the difference between Available Dispatchable Generation Incl and Excl renewables.

NOTHING is getting better ito the base/core load until alternative suppliers can take over one EOL power station after another.

While some companies and households are starting to generate their own electricity, Padayachee says this is having a negligible impact on the grid.

[TheTerribleTriplet]

I don’t think Cpt must “rush” to get off the grid.

All cities need to make moves … of DIT gaan MARAKAS maak vir Cpt.

[Sarel.Wagner]

In Metrology, you learn to trust an instrument and learn the technique to obtain repeatable and consistent measurements, ie the data. Let’s use something simple, a caliper, dial or digital ain’t makin no difference. I could use a plastic one, or a precision steel one in a controlled environment and I get a number and I give you said number. You have no idea what caliper I used nor under what conditions nor what technique was used. Thusly, you have no idea if the caliper was abused and no longer accurate or even if it is certified to a standard or not. Same for a ruler. Just look at retail scales at the point of sale, and the shenanigans people get up to.

This is the Eskom thread you scream, sure I said. Exactly…
Of late, I am unsure to what level I can trust anything out of Eskom, or the Eskom data itself.

VertrouensGroetnis

[TheTerribleTriplet]

@Sarel.Wagner

Thusly, you have no idea if the caliper was abused and no longer accurate or even if it is certified to a standard or not.

Reminds me of my boet the one night. He got apoplecticly worked up over a scale. He said … you cannot use that scale, you don’t know if it is right!!!

My reply: Tell me. If I use the same scale for the same measurement every time, and it shows that one is gaining/losing, does that mean the scale is lying? I’m NOT gaining/losing?

The scale may be out, so what. As long as I use the same measurement every time I measure.

PS. Turns out the scale that gave him a hernia was out by ±2 kg’s … on the scale’s upper measurements. Read: it was “pushed”.
Note: Scale is more for the female build, not really for robust men with massive “muscles”.

@Sarel.Wagner

Of late, I am unsure to what level I can trust anything out of Eskom, or the Eskom data itself.

For years now, I have not trusted Eskom reporting. Still don’t. Helps if one reads a lot, gets the “overall picture”, and does not focus on like i.e what MyBB said, why the “who cares” details are wrong …

Big picture.

[Village_Idiot]

@Sarel.Wagner

EAF, the year is bad…

@Sarel.Wagner

And lets compare same week last year:
2022 Week27…2023 Week27

I think the more relevant number to focus on is the unplanned outage factor. Comparing EAF between years without looking at everything else can lead to a less useful comparison - especially with the state of Eskom over the last 10 or so years. Not doing maintenance is one way that EAF can appear better in a previous year for instance…until it doesn’t.

the overall EAF for 2023 already took a nosedive with Kusile 1-3 breakdown AND Koeberg 1 going offline during November 2022.

If you factor that in then 2023 performance is probably overall not much worse than 2022?

The more troubling one is the trend in unplanned breakdowns and since no major power sources will be added in the short term, whether the unplanned breakdowns rate increase is arrested is likely what will reflect if any real change is made in the running of the plants.

btw, @Sarel.Wagner even though still a day behind, the station build-up has at least been updated again.

[Village_Idiot]

no idea how much of it has been used but the budget for OCGT use during the winter period appears to be R 12.5bn

@fredhen

12 July:
06:04 - 08:19
14:01 - 18:14
18:18 - 00:27
Total: 11h 37m (9h 30m planned)

Firstly it sucks, but I doubt that Eskom is trying to sneak in extra loadshedding stages. Much of the delays are probably down to trips with loads coming back on and also to some extent that much of the switching still happens manually and someone has to drive around throwing breakers - the higher the stage the more problematic both will be. vid (only 5minutes) showing actual loadshedding and trips at a substation in joburg.

[Sarel.Wagner]

I have to disagree. OCLF contributes effectively almost nuthing and there is no slope to it. PCLF over the period is about flat as well. That just leaves UCLF to influence EAF, meaning you can simply look at EAF and understand its going down as there are nuthing else really influencing it.

I will conced that the extra LS hours may not be deliberate on Eksdom’s part. Fact remains,mthey are getting a level or two of extra shedding, making the ls stuff worse than they admitting.

StatsGroetnis

[PJJ]

@TheTerribleTriplet

till me and my pal “volunteered” to drive log Buffels.

My dad told me when he had just arrived to serve is military conscription they asked who here can drive?
Obviously a bunch a hands fly up because it sure beats doing basic training etc.
They say to all the volunteers : Great! Please drive this mop up and down today and clean this place up

[plonkster]

@Sarel.Wagner

I am unsure to what level I can trust anything out of Eskom, or the Eskom data itself.

Not sure that is helpful, but at least in history, the “principle of embarrassment” is one way to know if someone speaks the truth. If the data is unflattering, odds are they aren’t lying (too much) about it.

[Village_Idiot]

@Sarel.Wagner

you can simply look at EAF and understand its going down as there are nuthing else really influencing it

EAF is per definition in relation to total installed capacity. If, in a perfectly operating fleet you remove 50% of your plant to do long term maintenance your EAF drops to 50%. Is that good or bad? If you have ample spare capacity should be okay? Even if you don’t have spare capacity the long-term effect of doing the maintenance is actually good? So is the 50% EAF then good or bad? If I tweak my definition and say the 50% removed for maintenance is no longer part of my installed capacity, the EAF suddenly becomes 100% again - sneaky, but true.

If I ignore environmental requirements and run plants without regard for emissions EAF will likely go up. Good or bad?

Eskom has long passed the point where EAF (and reserve margin) is a badge of honour.

Much of this thread is about trying to figure out what is happening during this crisis - are “they” doing anything, and if so, what does it achieve? Is there any level of competence left at Eskom and maybe even in government? I don’t have a time machine so I can’t go back and force anyone to start new builds sooner. I still need to figure out what do I think is happening now, will the grid finally collapse?

For me one of the more reliable indicators will be the unplanned breakdowns. This number has been increasing steadily over the past few years. If they manage to stop this progression it could obviously mean that they made up the numbers, it could also mean that maintenance done during 2020-2022 and still continuing had a positive effect. It could mean that whatever approach to the problem plants have been taken is having a positive effect. It could also mean that various other contributors like sabotage/unmotivated work force have reduced. If unplanned losses stabilise and then reduce it could hint that there is some competence left somewhere and that there is a base from where to rebuild.

[plonkster]

I agree. Another example I can throw in is of KPIs (key performance indicators), as applied to people’s work performance.

In the media, it is simple enough to say that De Ruyter failed, since load shedding didn’t end, and in fact got worse. But that’s not the only way to measure performance.

Performance is measured as a two part thing, 1) what is reasonably attainable, 2) how close did we get?

In that sense, I agree that planned maintenance really should be excluded from a fair EAF determination. Because planned maintenance is a good thing. You don’t want to penalise that.

[TheTerribleTriplet]

@Village_Idiot

Much of this thread is about trying to figure out what is happening during this crisis - are “they” doing anything, and if so, what does it achieve?

Few musings - high-level overview:
On the one side, you have absolutely dedicated people working at Eskom doing their damnest at great cost to get it done.
On the other side, you have a HUGE network, starting with the bloated employee count, networks, feeding off Eskom.

Before Rama one sick story, after Rama “feels like” prattle on, just keep the lights on as best you can … keep the voters, investors, and international community kinda happy … just get us to elections. Declaring Stage >6 is not an option, that will have dire consequences for SA, voters, international markets, and investors, cause that means they have lost the “fight” to keep the lights on. Will make us “look bad”.

The problem.
To fix it Gov has to “break an immense amount of eggs to make this Eskom omelet”.
They cannot, voters, elections, feeders. UNIONS … as has been reported … it is out of control. Has to die a natural death, which probably will bring SA to the brink.

Gov is in an untenable position: Fix it you lose. Don’t fix it you lose.

@Village_Idiot

I doubt that Eskom is trying to sneak in extra load-shedding stages.

And that is my gut feel … on why they are switching LS levels so actively, above Level 6 and it will mean a ton of drama heading toward “those in charge”.

Let me put it differently … >6 and SA has failed.

Renewables can save the day, in a few years, at GREAT COST ito infrastructure, the time it takes to install … but if Gov allow that, backs it, they will lose “control” again. Unions, criminal networks, how do they then “feed”.

[Deon_in_ZA]

@plonkster

(the last guys who went were the born-in-1970 ones I believe).

Born 1971 and did 5 SAI in Ladysmith, then went to 8 SAI in Upington and then 61 Mech in Walvis.

[TheTerribleTriplet]

I wrote the post above from a “gutfeel”.

Then this article came in …

Dark clouds for South Africa

In an investment note this week, Futuregrowth said that navigating blackouts has become part of the daily routine for the average South African – and as a result, investors are concerned about the negative impact on economic growth prospects in the country.

“For foreign investors, in particular, the growing possibility of a grid collapse and its devastating consequences severely dented risk appetite. This was expressed via an accelerated reduction of exposure to South African financial assets, including government bonds.

“As a result, the foreign shareholding of SA government bonds declined to 25.1% by the end of May, the lowest level in more than twelve years,” the group said.

Talk of grid collapse reached a fever pitch at the end of May 2023, when investors were flung into a panic that such a situation was becoming more likely, fanning fears that South Africa would be without power for up to three weeks.

Since then, investors have calmed down on the grid collapse angle. Analysts, like Intellidex director Peter Attard Montalto, have explained on several occasions that grid collapse is highly unlikely, and even if it were to happen, the structure of the grid and contingency plans in place make the manner, duration and result of a collapse highly variable.

However, Futuregrowth noted that investor fears are not only driven by load shedding and the status of the grid.

Upping the LS stage officially is not a good indicator … and could trigger fears of a “grid collapse”.

[plonkster]

I don’t rate BusinessTech much higher than MyBB. They are from the same stable, if I am not mistaken.

But I like how they say “duration and result of a collapse highly variable”, because that at least has always been my feeling. What is going to happen, is generators will island themselves, they will disconnect from the grid to prevent going down with it. In the immediate hours after this “brown out” event, you’re going to have many stations that are totally capable of providing power, as long as they have a grid to synchronise with. You are going to have many many people without power, but you are also going to have some people who do have power. It is not as if a grid collapse immediately means everything splutters to a halt like a Diesel generator running out of fuel. You will in all likelihood end up with multiple minigrids (so to speak), and it may be possible to resync such a scenario much faster than a complete black start.

A black start really is a worst-of-the-worst case scenario.

[Sarel.Wagner]

Let’s not forget the purpose of dumping loads from the grid, to protect the grid from failing by disconnecting all the load. When a blackout happens it is a cascading failure. One generating plant disconnects to protect itself if the demand is not reduced and the frequency is lower than the threshold. If none of the current load is dropped, the rest of the generating plant will follow, as more drop, the frequency will drop and the other generating plant will disconnect as well.

Hope pray nothing catastrophic happened during this process like transformers blowing up etc etc, recovery can be within hours if the resets can happen and all the load disconnected before the generuyter is reconnected. then the second plane can be synced and so on.

Load can gradually be added back. The start in this scenario can be a few hours after failure to a few days. Getting all the plant re-synced can take days and all the load reconnected a week or longer.

This is the not best case scenario but the best worse case scenario.

KragGroetnis