Indeed. But I suspect it is not going to be a neat falling-dominos effect, as it is sometimes explained, starting with one tripping station and then a cascade across the whole line until all the dominos are flat.
In reality, it is more like the dominos is stacked in various interconnecting patterns across a large floor, and they will start falling from multiple points. At the same time, everyone who is NRS048 compliant will also disconnect their loads from the grid, so you have a simultaneous process of power stations AND loads disconnecting, or in the domino scenario: There is a second process that runs concurrently to stop more dominos from falling.
The result is likely going to be a state of equilibruim, where some power stations still run, and some loads are still supplied. Or to stick with the analogy, when the dust settles, some dominos will still be standing.
Then everything has to be slowly added back. And that is indeed the best worst-case scenario.
Again, that is where one can miss salient titbits. It is about what Futuregrowth said … Intellidex director Peter Attard Montalto … and “Grid collapse” being highly unlikely.
You then went ahead and started talking about gid collapse. Feuling fears.
The point I’m making, above stage 6 and it looks “bad”, could trigger FEARS of grid collapse for investors and financial markets …
Actual “Grid Collapse”, most probably anarchy after ±24-36h.
In other news … damn close to 12h off.
… and just to P me off, there is another cold front moving in over Cpt this weekend …
I get it, I was adding on to this. People think a high stage of load shedding means we’re getting closer to grid collapse. That is actually not the case at all. In some ways, the higher the stage, the further we are away from collapse. We drop loads precisely to avoid the possibility of collapse.
The way the narrative is peddled actually scares investors away, which is really unnecessary.
Your assumption is that both sides are balanced NRS loads and Generator side. Likely (my best guess with some inside view from the past admittedly) this is not the case. In tripping, there are a lot of small variance, not all plant will trip at exactly the same level, way more nuanced than that.
Problem being the following 2 scenarios:
The Simmerpan control managing the Generation and Demand side has some type of oversight/bad planning/failure and they fail to manage the load and reduce it to keep the Freq in limits. When the first generator goes wall, now we have an even bigger or faster sloped Freq drop and that will cause even more generation to disconnect, cascading. Dis n wagon situate. Even when the NRS loads disconnect the slop of Freq drop may be overwhelming. This is what has happened in the past elsewhere.
The other scenario is where a bunch of generation plant disconnects in quick succession (unplanned outage trips), unlikely but not 0% and the load cannot be reduced in time to prevent Freq sag to below threshold. The overwhelming magnitude of Freq sag will case the cascading disconnects.
Oh, yes. 100%. Definitely didn’t mean it in a “eSkOm iS lYinG” way, just more of an actual vs planned if you factor in the local municipality’s infrastructure taking strain. We’ve had incoming breakers tripping, which means waiting for Eskom, overload which means waiting for the load from areas getting switched on to stabilize before switching us on, minisub broken into during loadshedding, cables stolen during loadshedding…
We’re lucky in that we can be backfed during the longer outages, but the other side of the neighbourhood is not so lucky.
There must be more to it. In March he said to embrace it, and even criticised the anti-nuclear people a bit. But it seems like he favours Russia as the supplier of such a thing in future. Mantashe doesn’t appear to be anti-nuclear, at least not in principle.
The assistance from the IAEA goes back to November last year. The DA credits itself for making it happen.
This is probably simply the ANC refusing to let the DA interfere, essentially saying: Thanks, we’ve got this in hand, don’t need your help. We already integrated your recommendations.
I think the “outrage” part here is based on the assumption that we need all the help we can get. I’m not sure that is always the case. Adding manpower to a late project tends to make it later.
If Koeberg has challenges, and this goes back to pre-Nov 2022 … then I take this with a bit of salt … “Adding manpower to a late project tends to make it later.” … and not in the flavoring sense.
