Why the hybrid sales boom won't last

I’ve heard many people claim that it is the “logical next step”. And in some ways I agree. During the transition, you’re going to need both types. That the two power sources needs to be built into the same vehicle is however not all that logical. That is only logical if you have only one parking spot, or you are limited to a single vehicle in some other way.

Many people who bought PHEVs are already reporting that they use the electrical side for almost all their driving. Some report only refueling the petrol tank once a year. That is to say, what was considered logical turned out to be completely unnecessary.

On top of that, for those people who have two vehicles in the household already, PHEVs really do cost quite a bit more, for a feature that is used less than 10% of the time (on average). That does not seem logical at all.

I think the automakers knew this. While (probably a small number of) consumers claimed this is what they wanted – at half the price of course – the automakers probably knew that within one vehicle ownership cycle, they would opt for an EV next time.

OK, I’ve been wondering about the advantages of a PHEV, but I suppose it is this: You can make maximum use of the battery and only fall back to ICE when you need charge and can’t use a charging station. As you say, this means that most of the time only the EV part of the drive train will be in use. Assuming you can charge the thing at home.

I always thought it might have a price advantage. EVs tend to be more expensive vehicles. South Africans tend to be willing to spend more on the “holiday” vehicle. But that vehicle needs the range. A PHEV then makes it easier to get half-an-EV and justify the costs a bit of what is always going to be more expensive than a similar petrol vehicle.

Now that the cheapest EV costs 539k, ie it is finally below the cost of a Hilux… it might no longer matter.

I was thinking of a PHEV against the vehicles that uses the ICE and energy recovery from the brakes. Though maybe I missed something could your plug in, for EG, a Prius?

Well, with the caveat that there is actually a Prius PHEV, the generic answer is no.

A generic hybrid is essentially a petrol vehicle, with some tech that makes it more efficient. So when you brake, for example, it harvests that energy and stores it in a battery. Doing this can make the car up to 20% more fuel efficient, but it remains a petrol car. It “charges itself” as some people say (although I hate that expression… it has perpetual motion vibes to it).

A hybrid is generally designed so that it cannot run on the electric motor alone (except for small distances at slow speeds). The point isn’t to be an electric car. The point is fuel savings, and maybe (in some cases) better performance. For this reason, the mechanics and the battery isn’t designed for full electric running. The drive train, for example, may only be designed to allow for 50% of the torque coming from the electric motor. The battery, similarly, is small and designed to assist, not to drive the vehicle at any useful speed.

That’s why you cannot simply convert a hybrid into a plug-in hybrid by adding a plug. The entire drive system has to be beefed up so it can run fully electric full time.

What I am saying is that the Prius PHEV, or the RAV4 PHEV (neither sold in SA), is actually a completely different car to the normal Prius, or the RAV4 hybrid (both sold in SA).

So that is the trade-off. You need a significant investment in additional battery and drive train over a generic hybrid (which adds to the cost), but the upside is that you can use some of that sweet solar juice for local travel, and the vehicle can still do long distances.

It is at once the best of both worlds, but also the worst of both.

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