It IS one of the answers, there is a ton before we get there … As he said… EVs won’t “save the planet”.
And THAT is the point.
Bigger problems to fix to make a real lasting difference … then EVs become part of the solution too.
The day you posted that, it caught my attention. Wait, What!? Plonk cannot use his EV for city driving, still needs the diesel car for <100km trips because the batt is too small … what else?
Then I came across that vid (by accident) … a lot more pennies dropped.
What you say is important. How you say it, is important. Whose talking points you repeat, is important. Why do you think I have such a negative response? This guy (at least for the first ten minutes) sounds like every other oil shill out there.
Again, I disagree, with that word “before”. I see a lot of this as trying to shift the responsibility. Every time someone says that cars are a small fraction, and then points to “energy generation” as the real bad buy, they are doing that “relative privation” thing. My bad is not as bad as your bad. Therefore, you first.
What is quite neat about this approach, is not only does it buy time… if the other guy does nothing, he remains guilty, I can continue to scapegoat him, and I’m not too blame. Not as much as him anyway.
I agree that EVs alone won’t save the planet. Shipping, for example. Also a rather large chunk, and the oceans are not regulated. Those guys can burn whatever they want. Aviation, another big chunk, they are at least somewhat regulated, but battery powered planes are not an option. Yet. Maybe ever.
In fact, I think that is one reason why some sectors may have to be targeted more, the simple fact that others don’t really have anywhere to go. Like aviation.
Technically this was outside the area that qualifies as “city driving” for me. City driving means “In Somerset West”. The car can go to Stellenbosch twice without needing a charge. To the CBD… I would need to charge that side before I can come back.
And remember, this is a first gen car. This is 2011 tech. I bought this one not because it was the best, I bought it because I’m frugal
Edit: It is not my fault that “Greater Cape Town” stretches as far as Gordon’s Bay!
You do realize, that you are doing the exact same thing?
I REALLY try and look at the big picture … it takes a lot of effort, time, and reading. And I still don’t fully grasp it.
Ps. He did mention shipping by the way … he covered a lot of the bigger problems to also be dealt with.
Saw this recently … I wondered, how great would it be to do that eventually with like say passenger liners, the “Wonder of the Seas” … which was directly referenced in his vid:
Yes, I know. You knew that too.
Still, EVs are a long way off to make a real difference. We need to relax.
The day we all can sell, even better, convert our ICE to EVs, and drive as far as we can with ICE, that is the day we all will have EVs.
I actually thought of that. I am, in all likelihood, raising all the same talking point that EV-evangelists raises. Which probably makes me one. Nevertheless, I beg to be seen as more of a moderate.
If we imagine a spectrum, where 1 is a person who thinks climate change is a hoax and oil will last forever, 10 is a person who thinks we should immediately switch to EVs and put all those old cars in the crusher, and 5 is a neutral person who thinks everyone should buy what they like and both technologies deserve to stick around for a few more decades… then I see myself as being a 7.
I need to address this as well, from my own perspective. The one stumbling block is price, price price. Since we bought the EV, even with its small range, my Diesel car doesn’t move for days.
The only reason it moves, is because of two occasions in the week: 1) one kid has has swimming while the other has guitar, 2) one kid has tennis while the other is at speech therapy. That’s it.
This makes a massive, real difference, in that it practically eliminates the monthly fuel bill.
Alright, so maybe you’re not talking about differences to a person, but more, differences in the larger “saving the earth” debate? If we had more green energy in our grid mix, that would be an easier argument to make. I agree. I don’t think it is an excuse to advocate for ICEV though. We should rather lament having to stay with ICEV, because of our circumstances. Too many people practically rejoice in our calamity, because at least they don’t have to worry about the big scary EV-man.
I’m off that spectrum … see no reason why I need to re-think the same thoughts/arguments for and against, over and over.
Obviously, a LOT of people will want new EVs … that is going to happen. Is happening.
And that is GREAT!
My view/spectrum: I want EV conversions to be put firmly on the table.
Better uses of existing cars - “recycled” if you want. Less mining, global impact.
Resultant job creation - keeps a lot of people in jobs, having been re-skilled, and new jobs.
Longevity of vehicles - easy repair/replacement of EVs batts/parts - again, back to job creation/sustaining.
That will make me happy, and I believe it will come … for sure as damn, with the lottery money I need to win, I will drive that “diesel/electric”. ±50-60km range on that battery pack … all I need.
Want the OEM idea of diesel back …
… I will supply the Lifepo4 removable/reconnectable battery pack myself.
I don’t think they are going to be worth it. Or to be more precise, I think it will rarely be worth it.
There’s going to be only two reasons to do it. 1) It is cheaper than buying another (electric) car, and 2) this car is really special and I want to give it a second lease on life.
Most people don’t own cars in category two (you can get kits for those cars, eg old Minis, Porches, that sort of thing). And as for category 1… the kit will set you back 80k, and then you still need to buy the cells… and pay someone (if it is not DIY) to do the conversion. It’s going to be a hard sell, unless some kind of miracle happens to the pricing.
Just to be clear though: I am not arguing against the conversion option because I dislike it. I like it. I just don’t see it really happening, again, due to price, price, price.
The cost of an all-new EV is X.
The cost of batts and an EV conversation, the core in both vehicles, costs Y.
As long as X - Y is a substantial saving, it makes it very much worth it, especially if you can extend the life of the paid-for vehicle by a decade or more.
Example:
My Dad has this Datsun Muggie. Goes by the name Nissan Magnite too.
I don’t think it will see 24 years with minor repairs. +300k km … forget it. That teeny little engine, as nippy as it is, works hard at times.
Now here is the thing … if that Muggie one day can be made into an EV … now THAT will make a lot of sense when the “muggie engine” must be replaced at probably ±125k km.
EDIT: Now the “diesel/electric” Hobby idea, Call it R200k for the conversion cause I had money spare. If I can then use that vehicle for everyday driving in and around town for “free”, it will save a ton of wear and tear (engine not even getting to temp), and diesel, 11.5km/l best town driving. And I don’t have to concentrate on the SOC … it will have a mother of an alternator/charger for when I start the diesel - better use of a liter of diesel too.
Not to throw more water on your fire… but your Suzie is an outlier. A unicorn. That kind of car is rare. Let me throw some numbers at it.
The average car on our roads is 12 years old. Just 12 years. It is actually the same as in America.
Less than 10% of the cars on our roads are more than 20 years old. 90% of cars, do not get that old. They end up in an accident, become a mechanical write-off, rust kills it (less likely where we live), and so on and so forth. Cars that do make it to 20 years, usually need substantial repairs (overhaul diesel pump, injectors, do suspension work, etc) after that.
When it comes down to it, the average guy is going to buy a new (to him!) car somewhere between year 12 and year 16. He’s not going to convert it to an EV.
Yeah, there will be a few crazy ones who do. The market won’t be big. And as the price of cells, motor controllers, motors etc track lower, so will the prices of new EVs. The delta will get better, not worse.
Sorry… as I said before, I am not rejoicing in this, but I think this is where it is going.
Suzi is getting some 24-year-old door/back window OEM rubbers replaced this year, and maybe some of the OEM seat sponges too … think it is time. Must sort the insurance out still, can now have it valuated and insure that.
Love it when there is this vicious rattle after +150km on a rough dirt road doing ±80km/h. You open the panel where the rattle is and tighten some OEM bolts again. Nuts and bolts that are still in pristine condition.
A Unicorn.
80km/h … is hy mal!
The speed the suspension agrees with 2 passengers and some light luggage. Below that and you have kidney stones coming out in a fart … as dust, and bouncing off the roof. Or load >200kg in the back.
Back to EVs:
But I take your point. It is a new market that will have to be created like that French Co did … PRICE is the main driver for it to make sense. We agree.
The Datsun Muggie … if the car is free, then the conversion will be worth it one day.
Or a Tazz, Corsa bakkie, Chevy, ±R20k for the body in very good nick, ±R150k for the conversion… and I have a light EV at ± a quarter of the price of a new one.
That is another important point. When I was considering a conversion project, I didn’t have a car that can be converted. I would have to go out and find one (preferably not too expensive). Then I’d have to fix up the body work (because, it wasn’t too expensive). And then I have to get the kit, the batteries, and do the conversion.
Then I end up with a 200k Leyland Mini that has to get individually valued by some kind of expert every few years before someone will insure it.
Insurance. That is another interesting thing. With my ICE cars, Santam ALWAYS has a book value around 10k under what it would cost to replace one. And I just swallow it, I consider it a kind of “excess”. When we insured the i3, their estimate was a 100k more than the car is worth. When I asked about it, they said the cars have no real second hand track record, and the only value they have is from when it was new. I can have the car valued by a dealer or two (I think you need two), and then get them to drop the cover… but they also won’t ensure it for LESS unless I do a bunch of paperwork.
Which ironically means that if I crash the car now, I’ll end up making money from it.
Maybe, when it’s working. Luckily utilities are starting to add the much needed batteries. A pity I cannot yet find progress reporting on Escams BESS projects locally, will keep looking
This whole weekend, I’ve been thinking that I really want to correct this. I used to put you at a 4, but since last week you feel more like a 3
The thing is (and this came out of another social media fight ), there are multiple reasons we need to move away from fossil fuels. Even if you (not you specifically, but the reader in general) think that climate change is a hoax, there are at least two more reasons to get away from it.
We’re burning oil faster than new oil is forming. Maybe we have 200 years left, maybe only 50. We can argue about how much time we’ve got, but running out is mathematically certain.
This stuff is mildly carcinogenic, and we’re pumping it out into this thin sliver of atmosphere as if it is a public sewer.
Really, the only debate on the table is: How much time have we got?
My other major problem with FF’s are that they typically come from countries with less than stellar human rights records.
The biggest effect of this is often felt in democratic countries (Sounds funny right?)
If the actions of some tinpot dictator somewhere leads to a increase in the oil price it sends price shocks through the whole global supply chain (As we now saw with the Russian invasion of Ukraine)
Opportunistic politicians of the opposition parties around the world will jump at the chance to throw any ruling party under the bus as the reason for any inflation.
Personally I still can’t fathom how the whole world is ok with a rickety cartel of dubious characters determining the global price of a commodity we all depend on.
