I think this musing fits here, as it has a direct bearing on costs of EV’s OR as a result of ramped up EV production?.
So I wanted 2 more cells, fly them in I said.
O. My. Word!
Amy replies with 1) no stock, a few months now, and 2) EVE just informed her of $167 per cell as of March. 3) as such they are looking elsewhere for suppliers.
Thing is, EVE cells are really good.
Then I see Will Prowse released this video:
Now couple that with lithium carbonate prices climbing fast, shipping challenges, Ukraine (?) and we have an interesting scenario brewing.
For to meet batteries for all the millions of EV’s needed, I think we are in for more expensive battery banks going forward.
No idea what is happening with BYD, Blue Nova banks, I’m told they are getting more expensive too.
Conclusion: I think I’m keeping all my cells.
Must sit back a bit and see where this is all heading.
Having seen the prices of ICE vehicles lately, I’m beginning to think the problem might soon go away (relatively speaking of course). When I next need to replace my vehicle… everything will cost a million or more…
The Cell pricing me thinks will be short lived, maybe this year. The new cell production facilities are ramping up fast, production will increase and for every doubling in cell production volume, the price will drop by 18% at least. There are more than just a handful of new factories constructed last year and more will follow this year.
Ramp up from start of production will take 1 - 2 years.
Keeping in mind, Tesla is not launching any new models this year 2022. All other OEMs must launch new models, that includes new plant with new lines to produce those new models. On top of that apart from Tesla, no car manufacturer as yet can make their own batteries, they have to buy that in. Most of the like of Samsung, Panasonic, CATL and BYD (they account for the bulk of cell manufacturing here) already have huge contracts and most of their factories are at capacity. New factories currently being constructed will only ramp production over the next 3-5 years.
Most of the mining materials contracts are already accounted for by Tesla and the rest of the top 5 producers, so raw materials are no longer freely available nor cheap due to demand. Most OEMs wanting to produce EVs, need to compete on the open market, raise the capital (more Debt) and commit to the time to get the manufacturing done.
Stellantis (Fiat Chrysler) already said they cannot produce EVs for a profit. Current OEMs like Ford and GM and others, are not making anything on selling the cars, only on selling parts to dealers, this is well documented. ICE cars production is declining Worldwide, look at VW group, BMW shutting down due to wiring harness shortages on top of the chip shortages. Also due to the fuel price hikes, doubled in the last year, the demand for ICE is falling.
This only means OEMs will make even less profit, not able to pay back Debt and likely will have to take on more debt.
Hang on, I don’t think Tesla is rolling their own Lithium (so to speak). They get the cells from someone (Google says Panasonic, which I knew about, but apparently also LG Chem) and then assemble their batteries from these “raw” materials… which isn’t all that raw now is it?
Tesla Kato Road Factory, plant to manufacture the 4860 Lithium cells, 10GWh. Gigafactory 1 is Panasonic making em for Tesla in the Tesla Plant. Germany Grunheide is currently constructing the battery plant for the 4860 cells, Tesla is doing that in house.
The big move is the own production of cells…
They have bought a long list of various battery firms to bring tech in house so I guess this will continue. I also think Tesla has a bit of influence over the current supply chain given their volume of BEV Sales.
And regarding if Tesla is making money, they are in the S&P 500 ( Tesla entered the S&P 500 to great fanfare on Dec. 21, 2020, in a rebalance of the index. )
