Just have a think, ICE cars EVs and power generation

A part of the article below: Engineering news 2021/10/29
Volkswagen and Toyota?
The vehicle brands topping the sales lists in South Africa like clockwork are Germany’s Volkswagen and Japan’s Toyota.

How do these more affordable brands plan to tackle electromobility in South Africa going forward?

“We are currently investigating various EV options for the Volkswagen brand in South Africa. As a brand, we have not finalised our decision yet,” says Volkswagen South AfricaPassenger Cars head Steffen Knapp.
The company does, however, have six e-Golfs on the road in South Africa as part of its Electric Mobility Pilot Project.

The vehicles –not for sale – are being tested by motoring and lifestyle media, selected dealers, as well as Volkswagen employees, in an effort to gain consumer insights into the varying experiences of driving and living with a BEV in South Africa.

Globally, Volkswagen is looking at how to make electromobility more affordable through its ID range, with the concept ID.LIFE small car having been unveiled earlier this year, for example.

Toyota South Africa (Toyota SA), similar to BMW, was a first mover in the country in terms of electromobility, with the introduction of the Prius hybrid on the local market in 2005.

At the time, it was the first new-energy vehicle (NEV) available in South Africa.

Today, Toyota’s premium brand, Lexus, has become the pioneering brand for hybrid technology in the country.

Lexus currently has an estimated 30% share in the local NEV market.

“This year, we saw Toyota SA playing a big role towards the introduction of NEVs with the launch of the Corolla sedan and RAV4 hybrids,” says the company.

“In November, Toyota will also be launching its first locally produced hybrid, the Corolla Cross, which will be available as a petrol-only variant.”

Toyota SA says it is looking to transition to a NEV mix of between 15% and 20% of local sales in the next five years, and up to between 30% and 40% over the next ten years.

“Due to their price, availability and self-charging capabilities (in other words, they are not dependent on charging infrastructure), [MHEVs] will form the core of our roll-out.”

Toyota SA adds, however, that it plans to add PHEV and BEV models to its model mix “where available and suitable”.

“We hope to have three to four PHEVs available in our local line-up over the next two years, with these likely to be midsized SUVs in the Toyota and Lexus portfolios.”

No Immediate Plans
The majority of vehicle brands in South Africa have no immediate programmes to bring a BEV or PHEV to the local market in 2022 and 2023.

Suzuki, one of the top-five vehicle sellers in the local market, says it has no plans to introduce such a vehicle in the near future.

The same is true for Mazda, Renault, Ford and Hyundai.

Globally, Mazda, Ford and Hyundai have, however, announced major investments in BEVs and/or hydrogen vehicles, with Ford, for example, hoping that about half of the cars it sells by 2030 will be zero-emission.

Still Evaluating . . .
Kia South Africa says it is continuously evaluating the suitability of introducing BEVs, PHEVs and MHEVs on the South African market in line with its new brand strategy – movement that inspires – and a related focus on advanced technologies.

“However, from a pricing perspective, it’s important that these vehicles are priced in line with market and customer expectations. To make that a reality, there is a need now, more than ever, for a level of subsidy by government.
“That said, we plan to bring in new technology into the country for extensive evaluation to ensure that Kia will be at the forefront when the mainstream automotive market in South Africa adopts the wide-scale introduction of EV tech.”

Mahindra says it is a pioneer of EV technology in India, with a range of zero- emission vehicles on offer, ranging from two-wheelers, three-wheelers, passenger vehicles and SUVs to, ultimately, the electric Battista hypercar from its affiliate, Pininfarina.

“Among the many vehicles available to Mahindra is the all-new XUV300 Electric, which will be launched in India in the near future,” says Mahindra South Africa CEO Rajesh Gupta.

“Mahindra South Africa is studying the market potential for EVs in South Africa. It is also participating in industry groups through its affiliation with Naamsa | The AutomotiveBusiness Council to lobby policymakers to create the necessary policies that will allow for the cost-effective introduction of these vehicles.”

It is not entirely clear what Nissan, the one-time leader in BEVs in South Africa, is planning for the future.

“As this technology becomes more accessible, and more and more charging stations around the country are produced, we’re confident the uptake of EVs will increase,” says the local arm of the Japanese company.

“We intend to launch some new, first-to-market technologyin 2022 within our product stable.”

Yet another Japanese car maker, Honda, will, by 2040, have no other choice but to sell BEVs and fuel-cell vehicles in South Africa, as the company CEO has announced that Honda will exclusively sell battery-electric and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles by 2040.

In my opinion, its a bumpy road ahead, don’t hold your breath…

So then, what happened to the Nissan Leaf Eskom project, what were the outcome??? Who knows… But we do know they want to buy new cars to test the same stuff they tested in 2013… Go figure?

Groetnis

While the Mini SE would be top of my list (if only due to its “relative” affordability) if we would replace our city car, currently a Mazda 2, the fact of the matter is that I can buy A LOT of petrol for the price differential between the two.

We fill up the Mazda about once a month. EVs are still too expensive. You need to completely throw logic out the window and decide that you want something green (which is the case with the Mini if you charge it with PV, so only for people with ample solar, and not for the author who charge it anywhere but at home). The Mini is also two door, and therefore not yet practical for us, who still need a car seat.

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For the second Quarter of 2022, GM produced 2x more cars including all types, than Tesla.

Look at the financials however, GM costs goes up more than operating income. They better turn that around pronto…

Groetnis

I think we might finally see the push to public transport coming from the manufacturers, at least in the medium term: It just isn’t economical for them to make small EVs (or at least they don’t think it is). Lots of them are discontinuing all smaller models, instead focusing on the more profitable larger models.

Which should push more normal people to public transport where that’s available, I hope. Or then to smaller second-hand ICE vehicles, prolonging the problem even more.

However, this is exactly how you end up killing your market and in the end yourself: someone else comes along without your baggage and gives people want they want in the niche categories and scale from there.

Exactly how Tesla started very high and then came down, the Chinese brands are starting low and coming up. Traditional brands will be squeezed in the middle, all the while thinking they can climb out by just going for the larger and larger models until that pops, or the Chinese are beating them there too.

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Best Common sense view I have heard, on EV’s and the grid: Hope people can access it …

A new angle, leaving that here, no more loans….

Remembering that our local banks stopped giving loans for any coal related developments or power stations, the woke Nedbank was first if I remember correctly….

Groetnis

What’s in it for the banks to be so picky?

(At least) Two things:

  1. A car loan is an asset loan. If you don’t pay they can sell the asset, which offsets the risk a lot. However, if the asset depreciates very quickly it becomes a bad asset. The risk picture becomes murky if you don’t know what the resale value is going to be. It might stay high, but banks typically take a wait-and-see approach to such things, so it makes sense that they just stop before the risk rules change too much.

  2. They have targets set upstream by either shareholders, the government or other lenders. Why would shareholders care? Either activism or #1: No-one wants to be left holding the bag in the end.

Is this to prove how ‘green’ they are? Hypocrites!

Or an actual positive step toward becoming more green?

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If you’re serious about the environment then reducing your coal business is a good place to start.

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ESG scores, its the woke investors and fund managers like Blackrock dictation that. They have to up the ESG scores, and climate change inducing things like coal is bad. Never mind the science behind that…

Groetnis

Virtue signalling and more than likely will never be enforced.

I was literally just reading that Jalopnik article, along with the usual mudslinging in the comments from people who are positively anti-EV.

One comment pointed out that “Bank of Australia”, despite it’s name, is not a particularly heavy hitter. I don’t know, I don’t live there.

Another pointed out that this is for NEW cars (look at the subheading). They’d still give you a loan to buy a second-hand ICE-vehicle, presumably.

Yet another points out that you could just get a loan from another lender. In a free market system, that’s how it works.

Some said it is virtue signalling. Yes, it probably is. But we tend to say that as if it is a bad thing, that is to say, the term is almost always used in a pejorative sense. We almost assume the alleged virtue that is signalled is fake. I’m not so sure that it is…

In this debate, I tend to see myself as somewhat of a realist. I know EVs are the future, I am certain of that. I just think that in general, people make two equal but opposite mistakes. They either think the EV is going to immediately replace everything, or they think it is never going to happen. The reality is probably that some organic middle is going to happen. One morning, Joe will wake up and realise it is time for a new car. The EV he’s had an eye on for some time, but could never really justify, will have dropped into his abilities to purchase (be it through subsidies, preferential interest rates, a promotion at work, high fuel prices, cheaper EVs on the market, or some combination of the above), and on this particular day he may buy it. Multiply that thousands of times over, and the revolution will happen.

For myself, I’m beginning to think it might happen sooner than I thought. I was thinking 2030. It is beginning to look likely that 2025 might be the year. Except, I met an additional obstable. My wife doesn’t want to offer up “her car” to be replaced with an EV. I don’t really want to replace the RAV4 either, I need that for the long distances. So I’m faced with the choice of buying a THIRD vehicle for the household, and then hoping we’d fall in love with it sufficiently to let one of the others go.

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Where one bank goes, like dominoes falling they follow. Just like the no more coal financing, most local banks now no longer do that, toppled like dominoes. The WEF and the UN talk to the big investors like Blackrock and others. They drive this via those ESG scores, other banks will follow, then what?

Imagine the impact on OEMs not being able to sell new ICE cars. What will happen to the factories making those components? Where will replacement parts come from? How will you keep the ICE car on the road? Imagine collision damage repair?

Where will it leave the plants in RSA?

Groetnis

The same place we’d be left if we didn’t invest properly. Whether that is EVs or fancier, more complicated diesel engines doesn’t really matter.

If you don’t invest you get left behind. Exacly behind which technology doesn’t really matter.

But this is where the whole “just transition” (as in justice) comes from. Many parts of the world being left behind doesn’t actually work out well for anyone, hence preferential financing to paper over the rough parts. Whether it’s enough, good enough or will reach where it needs to go remains to be seen.

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And that is the point. The ICE investments are already drying up for lots of the OEMs. Most budgets goes to refurb for EVs. There are no plans or announcements that I am aware of on refurbibg anything locally.

On a side note, Australia lost their car manufacturing a while ago as far as I am aware, it’ all imported.

Groetnis