What they are showing, is just the number of days LS was implimented.
Groetnis
PS: It’s the lazy way, no need to think, yea I know
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Looking at our historic diesel spend that checks out.
Normally it was between R5-R7k pm, now we are averaging R30k+ pm (Jan was a new record at R55k but that includes local transmission issues due to our rainy season)
Is this for a house or business or what-what?
Curious.
Also, I have to stress that the first three months of 2023 is 7 times worse than ALL of 2015. If we extrapolate to year end, times 4. That’s 28 times worse than 2015. But of course, I wasn’t being very scientific about that, so let’s vague-ify it and say 20 to 30 times 
Funny dat, how life works. People do projections but that is almost always a linear function. Almost never a log function. If however, we just look at that graph, it almost surely is an exponentially worse situation. Generalised of course 
Point being, like I mentioned earlier, it fails gradually at first, then suddenly
ExponensieeleGroetnis
Sorry, should have said that is our usage at the company I work at (100kVA connection that is about 80% utilized in the daytime and about 15% in night time)
Personally at home I am in the sub 600kWh usage club
You had me thinking there for a second. Of course I expect that the usual relationship will apply: The rate of degradation is proportional to the current state of “degradedness” or neglect, which means you end up with a mathematical approximation that will have the letter e in it, and an exponent on top. Typically that formula (when integrated over time) yields something of the form X = xe^kt, where small x is where you started when t=0, and large X is where you end up.
But since e^x is the inverse of the natural logarithm, you are spot on by saying “log”, just bent the other way.
Logs are awesome, by the way. There is a little power management project of mine that uses the log of the delta between the current value, and the target, to essentially measure how many orders the two are from each other, and to tweak the alpha value if it is far apart and make the low pass filter move faster
Reading all these mathematical deliberations I realized that I can say with absolute certainty that …
Jip, ons is innie k…k.
Jip, we are in the sh…t.
… and I don’t need a calculator for that.
the calculator is only to measure the deepness/depth of the poo 
Seems 29 March the first 500MW tender starts … ±3 years they recon and CoCT can shave off ±4 LS levels.
Discussed it the past weekend with FIL, when CoCT is “working” again in 2-3 years, what will the impact be when Cpt is operational, and people want to move down?
Two major problems:
- Water … more people = more water required.
- Power … more people = more power required.
… but forget traffic, there is little space to enlarge the main arteries.
So, Gov is in charge of water in SA right, same as with Eskom … wonder if CoCT can one day also take over its own water supply with no interference from National Gov … maybe also the police …
Ok ok ok … one thing at a time, or we will just declare the Republic of Cpt and be done with it …
In other news, but probably because of Eskom (… and the Gov generally speaking …)
Upside
- Probability: 1% (down from 4%)
- Rand movement: Strong first quarter, averaging R17.00, moving to R17.20 by Q2, R17.40 by Q3 and R16.90 by Q4.
-
Conditions:
- Economic growth averages 3.3% over five years, lifting to 5.0% by period end
- Rising confidence and investment levels
- Structural constraints eroded
- Global growth strong
- Risk-on markets
- Strong property rights, no nationalisation or land expropriation without compensation
- Low domestic inflation
- Favourable weather
- Increased privatisation
- Credit rating upgrades
- Substantial transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels
- Greylisted for less than 18 months
- Credit rating upgrades on fiscal consolidation
- Lower borrowings
Baseline
- Probability: 48%
- Rand movement: First quarter averaging R17.80, moving to R18.40 by Q2, R18.60 by Q3 and down to R17.80 by Q4.
-
Conditions:
- Modest economic growth of 1.9% average over five years, lifting to 3.0% by the end period
- Neutral to positive risk sentiment in global markets
- Fiscal consolidation in South Africa leading to positive sentiment
- Likely credit rating upgrades
- Stable rand, which strengthens
- Inflation impacted by weather patterns – via food price inflation
- Slow move away from fossil fuels
- Russia/Ukraine conflict eases and does not exacerbate
- Little expropriation without compensation
- Temporary greylisting
- Debt-to-GDP stabilisation leading to positive outlooks
- Credit rating upgrades
Lite downside
- Probability: 40% (up from 36%)
- Rand movement: Weak first quarter, averaging R18.00, moving to R18.90 by Q2, R19.00 by Q3 and R18.60 by Q4.
-
Conditions:
- Weak GDP growth of 0.9% average over five years
- Swing toward left-leaning policies
- Depressed business confidence
- Substantial load shedding and water shedding
- Very weak rail capacity
- Civil and political unrest
- Little investment growth
- Recession
- Some expropriation of private sector property without compensation
- High inflation
- Unfavourable weather conditions
- Marked rand weakness
- Little transition to renewables away from fossil fuels
- Lengthy greylisted
- Increased state borrowings
- Risk of credit rating downgrades then happens at a later point
Severe downside
- Probability: 10% (down from 11%)
- Rand movement: Weak first quarter, averaging R18.70, moving to R19.30 by Q2, R19.70 by Q3 and R20.00 by Q4.
-
Conditions:
- Lengthy global recession and global financial crisis
- ANC/EFF coalition in 2024
- Widespread, severe load shedding
- Severe political and civil unrest
- Increased government borrowing from wide sources
- Failure to transition to renewables from fossil fuels
- Very high inflation
- Very adverse weather conditions
- Severe rand weakness
- Expropriation of private property without compensation
- Blacklisted
- Credit rating downgrades (B rating, eventually to CCC)
- Increased risk of default
- Sinking deeper into a debt trap
Been watching how the buying power in and around Tygervalley has changed in the last ±5-8 years.
Makes me so happy seeing the rainbow nation in full force, families shopping, “the new taxpayers” spending monies, nice cars parked, spending on eating out … the same taxpayers that are referred to above, the middle class that earns the big taxes for the state. 
Told the wife it is just awesome to see it all from “all white” a decade ago to “all South African” when you sit at like Tygerfalls having a beer, just listening to all the different languages spoken, the enjoyment of the people, the friendliness.
ANC, your days are number “bra” … numbered. The black middle class is becoming HUGE!
Yeah yeah, I know … a small teeny little microcosm yes … but there are thousands of these examples all over SA. Just takes a moment to sit back and watch, take it in, and see it happening.
This is EPIC!!! … not.
What a disingenuous “strategy” of deflecting … read “passing the buck”.
I just burst out laughing … 
I just look at it and want to cry… what a bunch of clowns that are in control of the destiny of our beloved country
Sjoe …
Something is wrong at Pretoria. It just pops out at you
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Indeed, they seem to spend 300k on Diesel even when there is no load-shedding… if you extrapolate that line.
Holy smokes … it cannot get worse … nope, it cannot … have no words left.
This is going nowhere.
“Winter is coming …” as per John Snow.