P1: Doing X will lead to Y
P2: Y is bad
C: therefore we should not do X
The argument is valid. That means the conclusion follows from the premises. It may not be sound however. That means one or both of the premises might not be true.
The argument is fallacious in that case, in other words when X does not lead to Y, or when Y is not a bad thing.
The version of this argument that should be most well known as the gateway-drug argument: If you start smoking dagga, you will end up using Heroin later. It’s fallacious because you first have to prove that one leading to the other is inescapable. And then even after you recognise the argument is falacious, that still doesn’t mean the consumption of so-called gateway drugs is a GOOD thing either!
In any case, all that drivel aside. Mantashe says that allowing renewables will lead to ghost towns, and ghost towns are bad. Cause and effect is definitely a possibility (P1), but the ghost towns (in the larger scheme of things) is not necessarily a bad thing. Hence, you would say Mantashe’s argument requires P2 to be true (ghost towns is much worse than a little bit of coal burning) for the argument to be sound… and that is where it falls apart.
P3 … Ghost towns are inevitable.1) the coal runs out, 2) the coal business gets pillaged with impunity and has to close, or 3) the local power station has to be switched off.
And then there was no 8am LS as Eskom-se-Push “promised”.
So me watching this thing with a hawk’s eye now, Eskom struggling to keep “at all costs producing”, then more units calve, more come back, add to that Cpt doing their level best to further mitigate it all, I’m starting to ponder on that maybe all these attempt to “control” it all “fairly” is causing more problems than benefits.
Like if I can “plan” around a fixed LS schedule, as my business relies on big consistent power, and I know that LS will be at X to Y time, I can change my business hours to fall in line, staff come in later/leave earlier.
Consistency is the key to that idea.
And if all was planned, and then Eskom drops even more units, well, maybe only then Cpt can step in.
This flip-flopping tryng to keep it going “at all costs”, I think it is causing more uncertainty, moedeloosgeit.
I think Cape Town has a similar challenge as myself, with Steenbras.
Normally, Steenbras is there to save and make money. I buy cheap energy to pump water to the upper dam, and then I can run all of it down to the lower dam (for some value of all, there will be minimae to consider) to 1) save the most money, and 2) sell that energy to my customers and make money.
Then comes Load-shedding. Now I need to keep healthy reserves for certain times of the day, and I need to pump water/charge batteries at times I normally would not. The normal schedule is disrupted. Efficiency goes out the window. I actually save/make less money.
In my local setup, where larger loads that run directly from the grid are staggered (to keep the peak low and use maximum PV for it), things are now bunched up and I end up with a higher peak and a higher energy consumption (I could of course increase the size of the system so I don’t need the grid to run the pool pump, for example).
So while I would not go as far as saying it causes more problems than benefits, there is definitely a cost (to the grid!) of all the skipping and jumping. Some of the energy consumers don’t go away… they bunch up and make the peaks worse.
Simple thought experiment: When LS returns after a 4 hour slot, how many geysers immediately turn on at the same time… vs when there was no LS? It is an easy experiment.
I remember in the 80’s speaking to a programmer who was given a job to schedule the switching of geysers. In those days there was a system that could switch geysers to manage electricity loads by the utilities. (ripple system if I recall correctly)
He made the point that as soon as you switch off a bunch of geysers you need to plan for the tidal wave of power required when they all switch back on again!
I think those articles goes both ways. It suggests that the negative narrative is true, Eskom is in many ways almost beyond saving with the looting and sabotage going on. But it also shows that an effort is under way to bring that to an end.
I suppose all that remains is to decide who we are rooting for
This will not be resolve in the way we normally expect it to be resolved in, ie the logical way… People in court and in jail. The elites (we can in this case call them the criminals) who are the instigators and main benificiearies (follow the money) makes sure that nobody actually are caught. Why else are the whistleblowers killed or prosecuted, fired and financially ruined? They are normally unemployable afterwards.
Let me relate this story: A dictator was once asked why criminals are the only ones lasting in his dictatorship, him included. His answer was enlightening to say the least. “You cannot trust an honest person, they have to be worked out. They are the ones ratting out, criminals don’t do that to each other as it is a lucrative business.”
I hope and prey this time would be different, but I predict it will be the same outcome as always.
The ONLY solution to Eskom I can see, is if SA votes in a new Government that understands that they are entrusted to work to our collective benefit, the logical way.
Looking at what is happening in Jhb with coalition politics, I do not see that happening soon. I do however see it happening one day far far in the future in a long-forgotten land.
Today I think I actually agree with you. Almost. I think it will be solved in “the usual way”, I think we just need to accept that what is considered usual has changed. The way these problems are solved everywhere in the world, is people work around their governments. It will be solved the usual way, we just need to accept that usually politicians and big businessmen don’t go to jail… and it is all quite logical really
A “change of heart” … well blow me down. From pro-coal to warning" about towns that will cease to exist whilst sitting on new bidding rounds of IPPs not signing them off … wow!
Manatashe you’re the man …
Oh wait, my bad.
ANC being hammered recently with their inaction on power for decades, De Ruyter speaking out and still in charge, Mantashe being boo-ed off stage … elections just around the corner.
