Back in the day, when load-shedding was just still just a shady tree.
I was informed by the rural network planner that the “Groot Krokodil” had 3 rural feeds to his spot in George. He said some things you just do as your told.
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Anybody know what contingencies Nkandla has??
Can’t find an English source: low-level months-long loadshedding a last-resort possibility. They’re weighing it up:
Pas beurtkrag maande tot ’n jaar lank ononderbroke toe om herstelwerk te kan doen
I remember, probably a decade back, reading an opinion piece where someone did a similar analysis. His recipe was:
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Low hanging fruit. He went through the list of issues – which at the time was publically available – and noted that a large number of power stations were running reduced power due to some small maintenance issue. Fix these first. Large gains in a short time period.
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Diesel. Buy lots and lots of Diesel. Make debt if you have to. Use this to reduce the worst edge of load shedding, and take as many stations offline as you can for maintenance.
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Low-level load-shedding. Well managed, scheduled load shedding of a low level (stage 1 or 2) over a longer period. This creates more room to do the maintenance.
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Shifting work and school hours. If Cpt starts a bit later (face it… we already do to some extent), you can flatten your morning and evening peaks.
Since this article was written a lot has changed. Diesel is now double the price, to name just one, and we have lost the ability to cover the peaks with OCGTs since they are already running more or less permanently.
And then of course, you also need the ability to do the repairs/maintenance on time, on budget, etc etc… or you will lose public support.
And you will have to communicate the progress almost relentlessly.
Although, hearing how many social media commentators think it is all a scam, Eskom is just pretending there is a shortage to get more money, I wonder if any amount of communication will work with this generation… you know the kind who cannot hold a thought that doesn’t fit in a tweet.
As not a subscriber to Netwerk24, here is english version of the same
https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/460221-eskoms-code-red.html
Energy expert Anton Eberhard took Twitter, saying South Africans should be looking to buy a backup power system to combat the rotational power cuts.
“Code red. If you’ve not yet bought your home or business [a] solar PV + battery system yet, now’s the time,” he said.
As powerful as social media is for good causes, as bad it has become for BS sent out for generating Likes/Status.
Right, ok … China drops a Koeberg nuclear generator.
Yeah, that News24 reporting is crazy too… Here’s Engineering News:
Following a report by News24 earlier on September 12 that a steam generator meant for the Koeberg station had been dropped in the manufacturing facility in China, Oberholzer confirmed that this did occur – but clarified that it happened about a year and a half ago.
He acknowledged that this had resulted in delays to this steam generator being delivered – it is slated to be delivered to South Africa in December, which Oberholzer acknowledged was late. Five of the other generators were on site, and this was the only outstanding one.
Eskom elaborated that the steam generator had been on a stand in the assembly line in the factory in China, when one of the mechanisms that enables it to rotate failed, and caused it to fall about a foot or so onto the floor. It was noted that the analysis of the drop had taken a long time, as did the repairs and inspections.
Oberholzer assured that the repairs had now been completed and that the steam generator had been given a clean bill of health. It was undergoing end of manufacturing inspections, prior to its shipping to Koeberg.
Also, “Koeberg” is two completely separate units, so if one unit’s steam generator replacement puts it outside the operating license window, the other may operate. They just need to apply to the nuclear regulator for each unit independently. (Not sure if this would have been the case anyway.) Since 5/6 steam generators are on site already, this is the mostly likely scenario.
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And then this today …
I have no idea how the really committed Eskom people, who are really committed to make it work, can continue that in light of:
- No more money.
- The work done is consistent, it seems, below standard.
- Gov being “absent” in the running of their own “company”.
Ok, this is interesting.
±30min ago I checked and saw Cpt has LS, we are off tomorrow sometime.
Then the power goes off, I checked, and we are now on Stage 3, and the power is off … now.
The country is level 4, if this goes 5+ … naaa, let’s be positive. Just a glitch.
Yup. This morning the site said expected to go to stage 1 later today. I check the app a little later, what do you know, we’re not coming down a step, we’re going up one. Oh well, I was already prepared anyway… 
Re the CoCT app. For now I will give it 7 out of 10. You have to close the app and re-open it to get it to update. That sucks a little. The calendar view is really nice! It would be nice if the Timetable view defaulted to your area and I didn’t have to re-select it every time I restart the app.
The notifications only seems to work when the app is running. But that is probably some kind of glitch re power saving or something.
Why not just use Eskom-se-dinges? Well… they lag behind a little. Not much, but when there are quick changes, they do. I know because my wife uses the other app.
I do.
Maybe I missed it, maybe it was too fast for the App to update, bottom line, I did not see it coming … had plans man, had plans.
I think ESP will always be a bit slower since they probably don’t have a direct line to anything from CoCT. So CoCT decides and their app gets updated, as well as the website & Twitter. Then ESP sees that, and updates accordingly.
Over the weekend they were behind from about 08:00 to ~10:00 so I think there’s still A Human In The Loop there. (Same reason CoCT is so far behind Eskom itself… they need to get info, decide and announce.)
Overall, pretty good service for free! And it’s useful to see my parents’ status in the same app (outside CoCT).
Eskom facing ‘Code Red’ – as major nuclear error reported
The next 12 months promise to be an almighty struggle for Eskom, which has now reached ‘Code Red’ – and it’s all gone wrong at Koeberg.
by Tom Head
12-09-2022 10:40
We can think of a few better ways to start the week than by receiving a ‘Code Red’ warning about Eskom. But, when the utility adds a major nuclear cock-up into the mix, the outlook gets even bleaker. A comedy of errors is now making a bad situation even worse for Mzansi.
WHY IS ESKOM NOW AT ‘CODE RED’
Over the weekend, Eskom published it’s power outlook for the year ahead. Needless to say, it makes for a tough read.
For 49 of the next 52 weeks, the ‘likely risk scenario’ for load shedding is rated high. The only predicted respite comes for two weeks at Christmas, and during one week in September 2023. For the foreseeable future, Eskom is indeed operating ‘at Code Red’.
Eskom code red nuclear koeberg
The right-hand column predicts the risk of load shedding over the next 52 weeks – which is almost exclusively in ‘Code Red’ – Photo: Eskom
WHAT IS CODE RED, AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MZANSI?
Anton Eberhard is one of South Africa’s top energy policy specialists. After studying the ‘red-all-over’ column on the far right, he urged all citizens to make the switch to solar or battery power as soon as they can – because the next 12 months ‘will be a struggle’.
“We are now at Code Red. [That’s according to] South Africa’s power system outlook for the year ahead, published by Eskom. If you’ve not yet bought your home or business a solar/battery system yet, now’s the time…” | Anton Eberhard
NUCLEAR MISTAKE SETS ESKOM BACK ON ROAD TO RECOVERY
This news was compounded by another development reported on Monday, though. As per News24, it was confirmed that a R5bn nuclear generator destined for the Koeberg Nuclear Plant was ‘dropped on the factory floor’, causing extensive damage to the 360-tonne structure.
It’s an error of epic proportions, and there are serious consequences for South Africans. With one of Koeberg’s units currently offline, the national grid remains depleted. Chris Yelland, a leading energy analyst, summed up the crisis in his own words…
‘Good grief’ indeed!
TheSouthAfrican.
Now watch, “they” will want De Ruyters head to roll … who wants to bet when? 
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Interesting …
I would like to see a Cape Town vs rest of country number.
I would also like to see an average per-area number. So far this year…
>>> from datetime import datetime
>>> datetime.now() - datetime(2022, 1, 1)
datetime.timedelta(days=256, seconds=31752, microseconds=492147)
If we’ve had 62 days of load-shedding, that doesn’t mean that the power was out 62/256 = 24.2% of the time. It means that about a quarter of the time the power was out SOMEWHERE.
One could probably say that if on average we were on stage 2, which means you have 4 slots every 3 days, then you were out 80 hours out of the 720 in a month, which is closer to 11% of the time.
Still pretty poor though…
Edit: Another interesting cost analysis would be the effect of using pumped storage (at Steenbras) to shift the worst of the load-shedding to after hours. Load shedding at 10AM is after all a much costlier problem than one at 2AM, in the business sense.
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Better way to calculate would be to say stage 2 is ~2GW out of ~30GW (perhaps there is a better estimate for average availability somewhere, I’m just using this figure as illustration). That gets you 24.2% of 6.7% or about 1.6%.
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And that again illustrates how small shortages can have massive effects. The massive rise in fuel price, for example, is because of single-digit shortages.