Eskom ... is there ANY chance? In CPT there is

Pg 86 is for me the biggest single “solvable” issue:

" The raw water treatment plant of the Medupi and Matimba power plant – both sites
share of this plant – urgently requires maintenance and upgrading. A second inde-
pendent water treatment plant additionally would be even a better solution. If the existing plant fails, 12 units – 9 800 MW – would go off the grid."

Fixed:
When the existing plant fails, 12 units – 9 800 MW – would go off the grid."
Reading the report, leaves no place for optimism. It is a systemic failure of humungous proportions of a few things in Generation devision. Management and process, political interference called central HQ not allowing plant managers to manage the plant and lastly not mentioned in the report qt all, theft and criminal syndicates.

Look at Medupi Unit 4 managed by Toshiba, ~90% EAF, same plant, different people not Eskom, and in spite of all the design, coal supply, water and other issues. What a hot mess for Eskom, and should be the signal that they lost the ability to run Eskom.

Also in contrast see Transmission, a roaring success in comparison.

Irestmycaseyourhonour…Groetnis

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Saw this this morning …

I KNOW Eskom can be “saved”, sorted, fixed … but it needs a new “management team” to be in place … better ya all vote NÉ!

Family member of mine yesterday, on the weekly family call lamenting that there is nobody to vote for. Can’t even vote for the DA, she says, they are useless in that particular province! I’m like, really? Let me tell you something about fractions. You know with the numerator on top and the denumerator at the bottom. If you cannot decide whose numerator you want to add one to… at the very least add one to the denumerator then!

En so moet ons nasie bou… It’s all about emotions, and fear, so logic is loooonnnngg gone.

StemGroetnis

ITSM to that a large number of Eskom’s problems are to do with suppliers and contractors. EG The guy who would sell the same coal twice. He would get an order from Eskom, drop that coal off along the way and refill the truck with substandard stuff which would get delivered to Eskom and put on a big pile. Meanwhile the good grade coal that Eskom paid for in the first place would be sold a second time.

Or the driver who would report to Eskom with a tanker full of diesel. Eskom would weigh the tanker going in and going out and thus know how much he unloaded. What they took a while to find out was that he was driving through a hole in the fence, filling the bowsers of some farmer, and they would sell cheap diesel to people in the know and split the profits.

You can clamp down on this stuff, but it takes will, time and resources.

We hear about contractors who fix one thing at a station, but deliberately damage something else on the way out so that they know they will get more work.

All of this bugs me like heck. These people KNOW what the consequences of their actions will be, but they just don’t care.

Eskom is not one big problem. It is lots of smaller problems that add up to one big mess.

Starts at the top … can be fixed.

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We saw that with covid as well. Back in the beginning, when we weren’t quite sure what we are dealing with and everyone was scared… did that stop anyone from stealing the money that was meant for PPE? No, of course not.

On that topic, not that I want to derail things, but I feel like it needs to be said, as it is so easy to dismiss the entire thing as some kind of conspiracy. The reality is that right now, we speak of this thing with the benefit of hindsight. We got lucky in many ways. When that thing started, we had no idea what we were dealing with. All we knew is that it was something a bit like SARS. We didn’t know how deadly it was, we didn’t know how contagious it was. We were learning about the thing while were fighting it. So while we maybe got lucky, when you look at it within the context of what we knew when it started… and STILL some people could not help but continue stealing.

As I’ve said before, when an asteroid is heading to earth and a multi-nation effort builds a rocket to send Bruce Willis and his band of plucky oil drill workers up to blow it up… these idiots will steal the rocket fuel.

…but I thought the Army was stationed there to prevent just this?

(TIC)

I would venture that some optimism could be found in
a) the assessment was required by National Treasury
b) the report being made public in full (before the elections)
c) implementation of the proposals from the assessment being a requirement for Eskom to receive their bailout from Treasury.

Possibly suggestive of some politicical will to fix things?

Also, while the report paints an overall very negative picture of the operational and technical problems in especially Eskom generation - not all is lost.

Is actually Kusile Unit 4 that is managed/operated by the OEM and about the 90%EAF the report states:

This clearly demonstrates that competent and prudent plant operation and maintenance makes a difference. [p234].

Medupi Unit 1 is operated by Eskom (as opposed to OEM/“not-Eskom”) and has an EAF of… ~90% (Medupi Unit 3 has an EAF of ~88%) [p372].

Seeing that both plants (Kusile and Medupi) have to deal with “all the design, coal supply, water and other issues” (and political interference and HQ interference and theft and criminal syndicates) there is at least some hint that positive outcomes can be achieved in spite of all the problems.

Significant progress has been made at Medupi over the past year, with a particular focus on critical areas and proactive maintenance initiatives. The reduction of unit trips has led to notable improvements in overall performance, and the MSMW programme is advancing well, already demonstrating its positive impact. The most critical areas of concern, such as the mills, dust handling plant, PJFFP, and spray water valve plants, have been effectively addressed. [p370]

So, from the purely operational side, whatever is working at Medupi (1&3) and Kusile (4) we need more of at the other plants.

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Mea culpa for using the wrong plant name…. Out of all the plant units, there are a lot me thinks, close to 90 units, only one run by Eskom is performing close to the privately managed unit. Good golly, a 1.x% of plant, brand spanking new nogal, is run half decently by them.

Lets not forget about the 3 units that is out for the count when the chimney elbows collapsed due to bad operating parameters. Negligence, could not care less, criminal intent or whatever. Same story everywhere, air leaking into the systems for boilers and other systems, water chemistry mismanaged, steam leaks everywhere. Then on top of that running the boilers outlets to hot, and steam temps to low (go figure). It’s systemic, in every plant the same, even Medupi and Kusile is suffering.

Do I wish it will get better, yes. In 30 odd years it went downhill on average every single year. Just like a leopard does not sommer change it’s spots, the inertia and politics and feeding trough is just too much. Past behaviour is a very very good and reliable predictor of future behaviour. Especially on the political/ideological front where the promises are repeated each election, and broken even before the vote is counted.

Zondo commission, all the ministers and board chairs of Eskom past: we will and can fix this. Ha where are we after all those years and promises. See….

RerigGatvolGroetnis

Funny thing this, 30 years ago nobody had an issue living or working in remote areas, for just a salary. Funny dat. No extra incentives to work, to get sh1t done. Now, whaddaya know, nobody wants to work, never you mind show up and do some actual work.

Ethics baby, well really the lack thereof. Maintenance, what is that. Just look at them pics in the report. Almost 15 000MW can go don just like that, due to no maintenance, mostly in this case of water plant. Let alone the myriad of leaky boiler tubes, or acid water causing sinkholes….

JaaBoetGroetnis

Yes yes, I know, MB BUT …

But 32 solar panels, Solis, makes sense:


image

Sounds like my kinda system/move. :rofl:

This is the guy who has been posting in the other place.

He bought everything at the lowest price possible, and second hand in case of the inverters. Indeed, using a PV-inverter is the fastest ROI.

I wonder if this is the Erastus guy I used to argue with in the other place, who had all those interesting ideas about not using an MPPT but instead better match the battery voltage with custom-made panels… :slight_smile:

I can’t believe the component prices if you think this must be a 4-6 month old system (at least)…

Can’t say I would be keen for my name and also a photo of my house to be on the net… I also see a few interesting panel locations that may/may not be “to code”…

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He had a house next to the ocean, Melkbos, if memory serves. I think it is him.

I recall how adamant that guy was, and now look at what he uses. :rofl:

Jip, is possible if you shop hard, buy 2nd hand, look for bargains AND can DIY.

For those who have not read the whole report …

They might have started asking how a residential customer got paid back from October 2023 when CoCT only rolled this out to residential installs from February 2024… (not taking issue with you @TheTerribleTriplet but with mybb :slightly_smiling_face:)

From the start of October 2023 to the end of February 2024, he has been paid R10,285 for the excess electricity fed back into the grid.

I get R8943.48 when adding up the “R back value” column.

It is unlikely that he has been paid (as in receiving an actual payment from CoCT). Looking at January (best month) he would have had to spend about R917 (ex VAT) for his night time/bad weather electricity consumption and received credit of R2203 for export, leaving ~R1285 credit on the bill before having to still pay R2K+ rates, etc. If allowing that his electricity consumption bill has been reduced by R3000 then his expenses have been reduced by about R4500 but he is not being paid that amount (which appears to be at times what he reasons - he even referred to it as a “tax free” over at the other place.)

Reducing your expenses by R4500 is definitely not to be scoffed at though.

The ultimate conclusion of a purely grid-tied system having a quicker ROI is likely true but this particular example will probably not suite suit many people, or even be possible. For instance he is on a three-phase 120A connection. Also, has very limited backup (seems to only power some lights and the TV during load shedding).

The other thing to also look at is when that 25c incentive goes away - and likely more importantly when TOU tariffs come in. Night time consumption will probably eat a much larger chunk of the day time cheap time export.