The thing about the wager is that it is really the capstone on a much larger argument. The man wrote an entire book named Pensées (thoughts), and this is basically the argument where he says: If you’re over halfway convinced, you really should just go all the way! Doesn’t work for everything, but where you have to make a choice that could be binary, that’s essentially what you do, always.
But don’t we often just trick ourselves that some choices are binary (an each choice implies a specific outcome) because then it is easier to make a decision?
For example: Law says if you kill someone, you shall hang. Person is on trial for killing someone. Judge needs to decision whether the person is guilty, or not, of killing someone. The person did in fact killed someone, no one is disputing this, not even the defendant.
So the Judge’s obvious choice is: Guilty or not. This is binary. Judge choose guilty. However, why does the outcome of the choice needs to be hanging? Because the law says so? Laws can be changed. Maybe this was killing in self-defence. So how about both being guilty but not hanging?
We often times stop evaluating at our choice, but not beyond. Some choices necessarily are binary. You have to choose “yes” or “no”. No “maybe” option. However, the outcome of your choice needn’t be one to one linked to a choice. Is the climate changing: “Yes” or “No”, doesn’t need to follow with “Yes, so we should do something about it” or “No, so we should not do something about it”. Sometimes it can be “Yes, but we should not do something about it”, or “No, but we should do something about it”.
I simply smile at some of the posts. It sounds so 21st-century, the debates by well-read people living in comfort. 
A few years back I read scientists explaining the sun/Co2 effect on the earth. Quite ingenious if you ask me. Feels like big oil paying for someone to publish that narrative, hiding core issues behind “the sun is so powerful” and “Co2 is needed for plants”.
O wait, there is this teeny bit that came out recently:
Must say, a few years back I read the same about Co2 and the sun and thought it made sense, today, not so much anymore as more and more results are coming to light that scientists can explain, but not really over the full spectrum of the problem. Massive changes all over the world impacting more and more large population centers, and farmers are being affected more year after year. It is a huge picture that most scientists today will consider that they have no real clue where this is really leading.
Ask the small guys living close to nature, they have a whole different view than urbanites.
So adding onto what @jykenmynie said, came in just now:
The Arctic is now heating four times faster than the global average and the Amazon deforestation has hit a six-year high.
Huge swathes of the planet are cooking in record-breaking heat waves. Raging wildfires, some visible from space, have ripped through the EU and US. And, the worst drought in 40 years in Eastern Africa could push up to 20 MILLION people into severe hunger.
It is affecting all our futures, and as I said, more eloquently said by jykenmynie, EVs are way too expensive to have any impact, maybe in 50/100 year period for it to filter through to most of the world’s populace like ICE has. Time we don’t necessarily have.
It really is not about what the affluent think, and can afford to think, like driving an EV, solar geyser and solar system. There is a footprint that humankind has left that needs to be addressed in its entirety, 1st world nations, who had industrialized yet are now hampered by other financial ailments, with the 3rd world nations still to get there.
It is a generational problem. EVs should have won the race back in the day when the first cars came out. But big oil won.
Yes, but what I am trying to say is we sometimes make choices that end up being binary in the long run, in the sense that after some time, we cannot go back. At least not without a lot of effort. Choosing the means of transport is a bit like that. Once it is done, once disinvestment starts in the previous sectors, it becomes binary, and therefore whatever choice you make ends up having the potential to be binary.
(At the same time, we’ve already conceded that hybrids try to straddle the middle at the moment, which shows that in the short term the decision is indeed not entirely binary).
And that is why I say, if we are uncertain about the science (given that none of us do it for a career too!), the reasonable approach is caution. Which is why I find myself in severe disagreement with people who think we don’t have to do anything. At the very least, we should slow down until we’ve known the danger is over, right?
And that would be another thing. The industry certainly aren’t acting like they want to do us any favours. They are not acting as if there is some kind of emergency. It is not as if anybody is in any rush to build an affordable EV, to help the transition along faster and to save the planet. It is not as if governments are clearing red tape and lowering taxes (at least not over here), right? It is as if the individual is expected to do it… at great cost.
Which brings me back to my main point. I didn’t install solar panels because I’m a raving treehugger. I did it because it saves money. I will do the same for an EV
Amen.
Like conversion kits from ICE to EVs are another example.
I’ve looked into those. It is not really cheaper.
So first you have to go out and buy something decent to convert. Unless you have one already, but for myself, I need to go find something. Something light and something that you can find a kit for.
Then the kit typically comes without the battery bank, so you need to buy that. That’s a 100k exercise.
Then comes the kit, and that is at least 4000 USD (up to 7000USD), before import costs.
So you’re pretty much at 250k, and then you still have to build the thing.
A good second hand i3 can be had for 420k. A Nissan Leaf can be had for 350k… although that will probably need a battery pack soon.
There are people in the country who will do the job for you, but it is not going to be cheaper.
Haha! My reason as well - After I deducted what I was willing to pay not to have loadshedding and a baby at the same time.
Interestingly, a friend of mine in Scotland still can’t get the maths to work out for PV, even at R10.x/kWh. This isn’t due to hardware costs, but installation is mad. He was quoted 5k Pounds for installation of a 9k Pound system. I thought it would be easy, even if he has to put up double the panels I needed to compensate for the clouds… They are also paid peanuts for feed-in, apparently, so a battery based system is actually needed for the maths to even start making sense (obviously depends on usage patterns).
I have seen 2x Leaf’s in the past year going for R200K but granted they both only had 5 of 12 battery bars left, that’s about 50km range, perfectly acceptable for my daily drive, I was really tempted but the opportunity cost of the R100K difference between the value of my current car and that Leaf is about R8K per year (8% of R100K) or about R660 per month.
After my current 50% discovery fuel rewards (R1200 total spend) I only spend about R600 on fuel anyways.
If I can find a Leaf for R150K and we can sell my car and keep my wife’s Tida as our long range ICE car, then it might be a economic decision.
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Found a guy in Jhb that does conversions. Jip, ±R100k + labour + batteries for Suzi to have front-wheel EV and rear-wheel ICE, 280td able to recharge the batteries whilst using the ICE. He said it should get cheaper eventually, but today it is “cutting edge” (my words). So like you said before, competition is needed.
The ideal would be to have a small paid-off ICE vehicle to convert. So say it costs R240k, a good 2nd hand car price, or a small new car, since you already have a fully paid off vehicle, convert it and drive another decade with it, maybe even use the batteries in the house like some manufacturers now “sell the idea”. We, on this forum, would have dunnit in any case if we needed to.
Because of the battery cost, hence me doing the imports to see what it really could cost.
For the batteries, to factor in:
- Weight of the vehicle - Suzi is not ideal no, but she can take a lot of batteries, so it is half a dozen or 6.
- Top speed - freeway or only on 60km/h roads? 85km/h is a good balance “they” said. Especially if you do short distances 99% of the time. Suzy hates them with a passion.
- Distance - where batt weight and the costs come in big time.
The day it becomes the norm, to convert ICE to EV, I would seriously consider it … unless I win the lottery, then for fun Suzy becomes a diesel/electric.
Yeah, that is a very good idea. I bet it would come too when more EVs are on the road.
Would have been awesome to remove the batts, use them in the house, and get a new bank installed. But I believe that is not how it is going to work, officially that is.
This company is doing what you want. They have not released it yet (I think the first kit is released next year if I remember)
Their idea is that it will be a retrofit kit that your normal machanic can do to your car within 5 hours. It keeps as much of your current car, so that very little certification needs to happen. Great idea.
Here is a video someone did on them
First became aware of the idea from a Canadian Co, very long time ago. They even had a conversion kit for a 1.3 Tazz as a matter of fact. Leave the gearbox in, fit the adapter plate, stick it in 3rd, fit the motor, and drive.
At the time the batteries I could “affordably” get were Trojan T105RE’s. The weight! Space!
So I thought, naa, not gonna work so well.
My main worry is that certain parts of the vehicle electronics want to see a running engine. I have not quite researched it all.
One silly example: In my current vehicle the electrically assisted steering activates on two signals: Either the engine is running, or it sees a speed signal from the wheels, which is probably more of a safety function. How do I know… well, sometimes I let it run downhill and bump-start it in third… as you do.
So just throwing a battery pack and electrical motors on the axle is not going to be enough. The car’s many computers will have to be told that the engine is running in some manner.
It is software that does that, reading info from some sensors. Write a patch.
That is, in my view, just one aspect to sort amicably IF you do decide to convert the car you are referring to.
15kwh … that is <R60k today.
This French entrepreneur, man, he so talks my language. Repurpose, and upgrade, your existing vehicle/s. Teach garages to do it in 5 hours … so my type of talk.
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Fiat, Chevy Spark, today you will not find one on my property.
But I will drive a converted Fiat, Chevy Spark.
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You do know that car computers are completely proprietary, of course?
It is probably not difficult. I would imagine it is all done over the CAN-bus, and all you need to do is tell the control unit of the electrical steering that it should be assisting. The devil is in the detail, and may be different for each car.
I probably won’t be able to easily convert the RAV4. It’s an AWD model, which means the rear wheels are already part-time driven. The rear axle can only handle 50% of the torque and isn’t meant to be used for driving the vehicle or for extended periods of time. It is a predominantly FWD vehicle with clutch packs (thankfully not the horrible viscous coupling of the first gen) sending torque to the rear, when the computer detects you need it. There is no central differential, when it locks up the front and rear axle rotates at the same speed.
It would be far more fun to do with something quirkly, like an original Leyland Mini for example…
@plonkster they make the kit for a spesific model car, and it handles the full transition. So your breaks and powersteering will work even though there is no engin running. The kit handles all that.
But it is also why this is not a generic kit. The kits are car spesific.
So while I would love to have a kit for my '82 Bertone X1/9 I don’t think there will even be one. Sad cause already does not have power steering and is very light.
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Well, that might not be a completely silly idea… you can get one of those, without too much rust, for between 20k and 50k. 60k for a battery bank, and then the electrical conversion kit at least another 60k. Doable… but then you have an ancient mini with 200k in it, and it will need to be certified as road legal. Will probably be made a code 3 (rebuilt or built-up).
Then I saw this just now:
What is not as widely reported, the bigger issue is Antarctica.
Like this one researcher, checking on Thwaites, FF to here:
This teeny part … what most do not see, measure, the results of what they found recently, underneath Thwaites:
If the balance tilts too far, there will be brand new seafront properties.