Yup.
I mean last years Q3 GDP upside surprise is testament to that, after going through some of the worst load shedding ever we still managed to eek out a respectable GDP figure.
I suspect there is waaaay more power “behind the meter” than people realize, that along with companies that switched to other solutions that are less reliant on Eskom, I can actually give a example of that at the company where I work:
In the winter we have a 200KW heating requirement, this was always provided by a couple of resistive heaters (Around 40KW) and the other 160KW from diesel burners.
Last year we installed a 300KW wood fired water heating system and the total electrical load to move the heat is only around 7KW (pump and fans)
We happen to be in a area where waste wood from sawmills are free, the payback period for this project is 16 months…
One or two homes or business will not help. I hear the alternative resources but that will only be sustainable if the country itself can run on electricity. Same with our solar systems at home. We will have power but what about everybody else. Sewage and water station needs power. farmers need power to process there produce. Generator isn’t the answer and actually neither is solar. To much corruption and theft.
Some things will work. Agriculture, for example, can operate quite effectively with solar power. Homes can be powered with solar power during the day, and the odd outage after 10PM is irritating, but not the end of the world. Businesses run during the day when the sun shines. Municipalities can do a heck of a lot of water pumping with solar power. At least in this country.
The ones that will not work are the large consumers. Mines. Aluminium smelters. And these are all massive contributors to the economy, and to job creation.
So… yes, we will be screwed. But not completely. Even now there are businesses in Zimbabwe, with solar power, running just fine. If you’re lucky enough to be in that business, Zimbabwe is an excellent place to live.
Saw how many shops in affluent areas continued right through Dec’s LS. Ster Kinkekor, even restaurants.
Butcheries, no problem.
People adapted in droves … in more affluent areas.
But damn, stuff has gotten expensive! The cost of running a business has increased prices immensely when they need to source an alternative electricity supply to just stay open.
As you say, large big users, are in for a lot of hurt if they cannot make a plan. The entire supply chain around them is at risk too. Some mines are going solar as fast as they can. So there are success stories.
But what is missed though, the less affluent areas, the small butchers, and other small to medium businesses that need electricity that is taking severe strain. They cannot afford, on their profits margins, to run a gennie. Those stats are maybe not as prominent as the rest.
The big picture is one thing. The picture on the ground shows it more starkly.
It’s aluminium production that really annoys me.
A foreign-owned company imports the raw materials, then uses mega amounts of power to process them, and then exports the resultant aluminium.
Then it repatriates its profits.
The public gets touchy about sending a measly few MW to a starving Zimbabwe. Meanwhile, they don’t realize the fat cats exporting aluminium are actually exporting MWh at a large scale.
Yup. That’s a topic that chaps my hide. Not just Zimbabwe. The peanut gallery on social media saying we should stop supplying our neighbours.
Ahem… if I may address such people. What you are suggesting is that we should withdraw from SAPP, the Southern African Power Pool. If we do that, we lose access to imports from other countries. While the average civilian is only thinking of Zimbabwe and maybe Namibia, they forget that Botswana has upped their capacity significantly (and we sometimes import from them), Zambia has hydro and we import from there (when it rains), We have the huge Cahora Bassa scheme that we benefit off of… but some people would rather that we lose all that just to screw over Zimbabwe, a place that asks for less than 1% of our power, and a place where those same people have never actually been to…
Then they get all huffy about Namibia, who has 2.2 million people (vs 60 this side) and has an non-industrialised economy the size of maybe Soweto… and where only about 50% of the people even have access to electricity…
After that rant, I should probably pause briefly and then say 'k bye!
I get the feeling some Municipalities might need to start absorbing some of that 32% in their tariffs to consumers, if municipalities add the whole 32% on top of their current margins its going to be very interesting.
