Eskom ... is there ANY chance? In CPT there is

General Discussions
851

This entire time I was wondering… if they kick him out, who the heck are they going to replace him with?

This is what I said to my wife earlier. Sure, I can believe that somewhere there is a more qualified person. That’s not hard to believe at all. Here is the problem, it is three problems really, 1) you need to find that guy, then 2) you need to convince him to apply for the job, and 3) you need to get out of his way so he can do the job…

Forgive one of the more positive guys around here for thinking that none of those are going to happen…

852

You guys are looking at this from the point of view of what a logical rational person would do to rescue a business. That is the normal way we deal with these type of situation.

That is certainly not what is happening here. The unions hate DeRuyter. The board and politicians accuse him of racism. He is standing between all sorts of contracts and the syndicates and whomever pays and make donations to Lethuli house.

Think like a politician, or a crime syndication, then you will understand. Follow the contracts awarded, ie. follow the money…

Regards

853

I was having this conversation just yesterday. Everyone is questioning whether the man in question is a good manager, and I think that is the wrong question. I think that if you want to rescue a business, he very much is the guy to call, and here is why…

When you need to rescue a business, you do it in much the same way as saving a sick tree. First you trim that tree down to something that’s easier to save, cut away the deadwood, even some good branches if you have to, the idea being to have a better branches to roots ratio (income vs expenses). Then you start building up the tree again.

This is precisely what De Ruiter did at Nampak. People are full of criticism about what happened to the share price of that company while he was there… they forget that Nampak was in serious serious trouble (because the oil price took a dive and big investments in Angola and Nigeria became big problems). What he did was precisely that, reduce the size of the organism to something that can be saved… and then save it.

But this cannot really be done at Eskom can it? Well, to some extent it can. You can trim down on the workforce a little, you can push the maintenance harder, you can tell your customers that supply is going to be constrained for years while you fix it (which he did), you can split the company into smaller parts (which he is also pushing), he is, as you say, doing exactly what the logical rational person would do to save a business. And in that respect I cannot understand why a logical rational person would think he needs to go… (unless said logical rational person knows nothing about running a business of course, which is more often than not the case).

But with all that said… this only works if said person 1) has the room to do those things, and 2) is allowed by their board/masters/whatever to do it.

I also think back to my “philosophy class” back in 2002. You see, I took this one class and now I know everything… just kidding. In philosophy of science, there was a dude called Imre Lakatos who had this theory about revolutions in science. You have a reigning theory (eg Aristotle’s idea of perfect circles and Ptolemy’s math that explains the movement of the planets). In time, you find more and more things that the theory doesn’t neatly explain, and the theory (or those who hold it) form a belt of protective “exceptions”, known cases where a little fudging is required. In time the exceptions starts to overwhelm the theory, a revolution takes place and a new theory (eg. Copernicus’s heliocentric model*) takes its place, and then the process repeats.

I think the same thing must happen in politics, and in worldviews (Weltanschauung in the German). The ANC has a certain way that they see the world working (very much informed by their struggle-time upbringing, in other words, a lot of soviet communism made its way in there), and now they find there are things that don’t precisely work in that world. The result is the forming of a protective belt of tweaks whereby the seek to run the business under their own worldview while increasingly the pressure is mounting to replace it with a new model. Inevitably, a revolution must take place at some point.

  • A note about the whole Copernicus/Galileo saga. The typical story about this, also pushed by De Grasse Tyson and Sagan, is that “the church” were the stick in the mud, the ones sticking with the old theory. The reality is that it was the universities more than anyone else. The existing system, which goes back to Aristotle and Ptolemy, had been in place for many years… the story is way more messy than people tend to remember.
854

Expecting the thinker (ideologist) to admit that he/they were wrong???

For the sake of clarity. DeRuyter in my opinion, is the right guy, at the right time. Still, soon he will not be there anymore. See we told ya, the non BEE cannot do that, he is an even bigger failure… This will be me thinks, the reality to be.

Groetnis

855

Well, I think that’s part of the human condition. Real thinkers tend to be full of doubts (because they know their thinking is only as good as… well… other thinking). On the other end of the spectrum, fools will rush in… and get the best seats in the house.

856

As true as that is, and the long-term results from “philosophy class” back in 2002 … the one thing one must be careful to take cognizance of, is to think the ANC is stupid, dumb, silly, “how stupid can they be” or any other “trying to explain what we read in the media” view…

ANC has held onto power now for a very long time, is running SA with impunity, and arrogance, stole just about everything, and is above the law. SA is been offered “fall guys” to keep the real networks out of the law’s hands.

On top of that, SA does not 1) have the investigative resources, nor 2) the legal/court resources, or 3) the willpower to handle legally and constitutionally the fallout from the Zondo commission report enmass. There just are not enough trained minds around to handle it all, as legal people have voiced with deep concern.

Back to the core point, I’m making, the ANC does learn. They cannot have a repeat of the mistake Zuma made when he fired the finance minister over a weekend, the resultant total fiasco on SA Rand, and other international consequences cost them a huge amount of money as a result. Super sharp business people I tell ya.

Then we also have the break enlarging between the ANC and the Unions. Mantashe recently booed off the stage.

ANC knows, if they play this wrong, rock and hard place, that keeping De Ruyter on the Unions may go on strike, or if he is set free, that SA and or international backers lose it with them finally.

How long De Ruyter will stay on the board … time will tell, but it would be a very carefully thought out risk vs reward calculation by the ANC, and the right political time they deem, to remove him.

857

Maybe the right ANC faction backs him and keeps him in place at all costs … for their political gain in the long term.

ANC are no fools, minora blade sharp, the ones that run the real show.

858

I think the problem is that people don’t like the rational answer. Even the competent, honest, people don’t like the answer, and are now pushing blame, thinking it will change the outcome.

The rational answer is that Eskom has been dealt a death blow and it is busy dying. Slowly, loudly, but still dying. We know how this went.

But it’s children will probably survive:

  • Eskom Generation is a bit of an idiot idealist who fell in with a bad crowd and then blew his college fund on blackjack and hookers. He will become less and less important. Bit of an embarrassment at family dinners, spewing nonsense.

  • Eskom Distribution is the solid one: can make an honest living doing difficult work, but he will be fine unless he takes to drinking excessively.

  • Eskom Transmission is the only girl: she’s smart, has a lot to work with. Will probably marry into a wealthy family, but that will mean changing her surname to National Transmission Company of South Africa.

Transmission is the place where it makes sense for Eskom to continue, and rationally the only thing that government should want to control. Distribution is a local problem, but someone has to do it. It doesn’t make sense for government to be involved in Generation long-term. What we need here is a (relatively) orderly shutdown of that dept. But that is where the unions are strongest and the biggest deniers are.

It would have been great to keep operating Generation given all the years of expertise, money and effort put in, but I don’t believe that’s viable.

So De Ruyter or no De Ruyter isn’t going the change that picture, it’s simply too far gone.

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859

Every ideology is based on central control, we know best, this is the point of departure. They will never get rid of the utility. Thy will have to control it, here is where the money is, and the control of business, people and investments.

Groetnis

860

Eskom as we know it is gutted.

Eskom II, or whatever it is going to be called, on the other hand, now that will be a very juicy “income generation” for the ruling “till kingdom come” political party. Who needs investors, or the pesky thing of declaring donations then?

I mean, they are heavily indebted and connected to some guy by the name Aleksei Dmitri, and his pal by the name of 沐宸.

And NERSA will ensure no one can sell electricity ever, and there will be taxes for solar DIY at home see. Cannot have the regular SAFFA go and do their own thing, now can they?

861

Ideology is a much wider term than that. In it’s archaic form it means merely “a system of ideas”, which means that even the things you and I write here technically have a backing ideology.

It’s a bit like the term “discrimination”. The way the term is used today, it is almost always used in its pejorative form, meaning “unfair discrimination”. In its archaic form, it merely means to make a decision.

Technically, to use one example, when the police hires a woman to be a rape councilor, it is discrimination alright, but it is not unfair discrimination.

Similarly, I find myself at pains to always point out that my view of the world (and I think most people here) are also the result of an ideology we hold. That is to say, even the idea of decentralised government or no government (Anarchism) is also very much an ideology.

So which one is “the right” one? Aaah yes, that presupposes that we have a way of measuring right and wrong, and now you are firmly in the domain of religious philosophy…

For me, I think the most interesting part of this discussion must be a discussion of what you mean by “truth”. It turns out, there isn’t just one “philosophy of truth” either. The one I hold to (and I suspect most technical people) is called the “correspondence view”. Something is true in as much as it corresponds with reality.

But there is also the pragmatic view: It is true in as much as it gets desirable outcomes. Or the Coherence theory, it is true in as much as it coheres with other beliefs a society already holds.

It truly does depend on your “ideology”, but the scary part of it all is that the “good guys” (in other words, our side of the war) also holds one.

862

Not scary, required. And I am at pains to make my point, we all do have one. Past behaviour is a sure indication of future performance and outcome… Not saying capitalism is good, everything else is bad. But capitalism compared to socialism, you be the judge.

Wonderful pseudo democracy we living in. Look around, we all see the decline, decline in education and standards, decline in medical care, decline in infrastructure, zero maintenance, no SoE functioning (SARS excluded somewhat, but only somewhat) Postoffice moertoe, water and sewerage all gone. Let me stop here, I think this makes the point. And who are rolling in $? $5 in a couch me thinks… And nothing, no prosecution, nada zilch…

Enough to make you all depressed, and I am sorry for that. It’s the pragmatist in me, or the eternal pessimistic optimist :wink:

Groetnis

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863

Agreed. Capitalism is the lesser of two evils no doubt. But look what I just did… I whipped out a yardstick and measured it, and declared it “lesser”. The yardstick needs an explanation.

In any case, at this point I want to recommend a book to anyone who is into this sort of thing. Tom Holland’s book Dominion. What makes this book interesting (despite the subtitle) is that the writer is Agnostic. It’s a cold hard look at why the Western World is what it is, and I think to a great extent it explains why it is so at odds with Soviet and other Eastern philosophies. We are so drenched in this philosophy we don’t even question it anymore.

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864

Someone once remarked, socialism finds you, you don’t go looking for or finding socialism…

Groetnis

865

Ag nee wat.

He did not apply for the Eskom job, he was asked, and he could not say no and keep on B&M’ing if he did turn down the offer to head Eskom.

He needs bodyguards, I wondered about that. He has been spied on and had to get interdicts against a certain political party favouring red, for threatening him.

And the WTF moment for me, he cannot even authorize a R70k payment …

Ag nee wat, De Ruyter must keep speaking of what really goes on in his eloquent style.

He’s got my vote all the way.

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866

Interesting history.

867

Fairly accurate depiction. I started my consulting to Eskom in 2004 and left at the end of 2014. I then represented a software company and visited there until 2018. I still do have contact with staff on a regular basis to this day.

This afforded me a good opportunity to comment on the affairs. I also visited all the Coal plants and Koeberg on numerous occasions, did deploy various systems into all of those sites as well as in Megawatt Park. I was in many meetings called by the McKinsey consulting people there.

I visited to plant control rooms on a fairly regular basis, as well as the Medupi and Kusile plants, but mostly Medupi.
Visiting there, September 2010 Medupi

medupi
medupi800×600 138 KB

I was not allowed pictures inside the plant or the grounds for obvious reasons being national key points etc. Another thing not yet mentioned is the destruction of the conveyor systems transporting coal to the plants hoppers and temp storage. That lead to trucking and that to a lot of extra criminality like adding rock and scrap metal to the coal load on these trucks. But ja…

Groetnis

868

The part, the new board (again), with clear instructions (again) … :man_facepalming:

On Friday, public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan announced the new board of Eskom, and issued it with a clear instruction: get the availability of Eskom’s power plants back up to 75%.

But 75% is bare bones if SA wants to grow … WTF am I missing here, Mr “Gordhan Must Go”?
And where is the money, Mr “Gordhan Must Go”, to even get to that mystical 75%?
And when is De Ruyter and Co going to be given the go-ahead to cut costs, Mr “Gordhan Must Go”?
And when De Ruyter does what he does best, fixing shiite, stations being National Key points, will they have police/military protection when Eskom goes on strike Mr “Gordhan Must Go”, like Covid beach protection by the military?
… SAA ring any bells Mr “Gordhan Must Go”?

Just make a damn call, the big one, Mr “Gordhan Must Go”, and tell SA exactly where we are, horse mouth and all that, and ask SA to help.

We will do our part, trust us … the question to you, Mr “Gordhan Must Go”, can you and yours do your part, can we trust YOU?

Cape Town plans have gone very quiet … I think it is a good thing.
The problem is, with all the reports of Jhb going down the tubes now too, what influx can Cpt expect going forward?

869

Yeah, some of it sounds a bit like when the Soviets ended up dumping entire areas into famine by forcing them to send all the food to the cities (for redistribution). Or the ancient story of how it is useless to tell a man to go in peace, keep warm and be well fed, without actually giving him clothes and food.

I don’t know. Maybe there was money on the table. Or maybe the back story is “we’re dumping enough money into this already, a new board will be able to make it work”. We’re armchair commentators, and it is rare for the media to get into that sort of depth when they report.

870

The sun is shining brightly in Somerset West today, so I’m feeling a bit more charitable than last time…

This new board has the most credibility we’ve seen in a long time. Yes, they’re new and they’re not wizards, but their experience is a change of pace.

Gordhan has been taking a lot of flack (some well deserved), but he’s been one of De Ruyter’s best supporters. By capacitating the board (finally) with what seems to be reasonable people, and putting management decisions in their hands, I think he’s hoping that the board will retain De Ruyter. Then it’s not Gordhan refusing to fire him, it’s a capable board that believes in him and his plan.

The fact that the new chairperson has said they’ll take a couple of months to become familiar and then make plans or adjustments make me optimistic. It is so far removed from the way everything else is going currently, see Gqeberha / JHB mayoral chaos, inner ANC ousting left and right.

A lot of the opinion pieces are saying a new board will change nothing to curb loadshedding. But that is my hope – no “magical thinking” to wave a wand and fix things, just a steady backing of the man with the plan, maybe some advice, and some more heavyweight political pushback. Gordhan has actually opened the door for that by stepping back a bit in his direct backing De Ruyter.

Let’s hope it works.

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