Do you have a crystal ball, Wizard Sarel? 
Hehehe yea indeed do have one…
Its charcoal grey…
WizzardGroetnis
The Johannesburg high court has dismissed an application brought by independent power producer G7 Renewable Energies to interdict Eskom from implementing the interim grid capacity allocation rules it published in June.
G7 said in an official statement, “We acknowledge and respect the decision of the court. We await the full judgment for consideration and look forward to projects coming online as soon as possible to alleviate load-shedding.”…
It looks like good news…
BUT… “smoke and mirrors I say”
And then … We need it but… NO you can’t … and lets have another Bid window as well!
Wilful obstruction/incompetence etc. can obviously be reasons for the delay in granting the trading license. A possible legitimate reason is interpreting the ERA - which even the X-experts seem to disagree on.
Nhlanhla Gumede, full-time member for electricity at Nersa, tells Moneyweb that Eskom bundled the three licences together in its application, but the trading and import/export licences were not in line with the definitions for those functions in the Electricity Regulation Act (ERA).
He says Nersa is finalising the conditions for the facilities licence and will send it to Eskom within the next day or two. Nersa must still develop a plan to process the other two licences, but he believes this can be done by November. Nersa can work from the same application, he says.
A source within Eskom with knowledge of the matter is of the opinion that the outstanding licences cannot be approved before the ERA has been amended. It was sent to parliament in April and will be tabled shortly.
Eberhard does not agree that that is a prerequisite, but Attard Montalto says the ERA is still needed though the amendments only look likely to happen now post-election, given the delays.
They might as well make sure the ducks are in a row since someone will likely still drag things out via the courts (like the G7 interdict).
Generally speaking - I’m not clever, but my BS meter is moving
I don’t like the word “interpret” at all in and around Eskom.
Electricity is science, it is engineering facts … there are no interpretations to be made.
Electricity distribution is science, an engineering feat.
All you need to do is spend the #*$&% money.
[Rant Start]
Now when the people in charge start “interpreting” the rules and laws that they had written, written by experts in their respective fields in and around electricity and distribution, it gets very sorry very fast.
Sounds like we are getting bogged down by bureaucracy, let’s debate the letters used to make words that make the rules because we have no idea what to do, we are doing. Like what will Mantashe say … can we do it, or not?
SA needs to upgrade the distribution network, now do it!
If we don’t, we cannot add more renewables.
Cause we now know renewables work better, and are more cost-effective per kwh, when installed at the other end of the lines and not where the power stations are.
O wait, we don’t have the money! My bad … so let’s not get down to upgrading the distribution, let’s get bogged down into bickering of what we must say. Let’s argue about the letters in the words about how we must not do it. Take it to court … we buy ourselves some time … to not spend the #$($*% money.
[Rant End]
There, I said it.
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tl;dr - The Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill was tabled on 24 July 2023. This indicates slow but vital movement. Lessons can be learned from Australia. Frog cooking method to be updated.
The functioning of electricity may be science but the commodity/buying/selling of it probably not so much. The start of opening up the energy market in South Africa is exactly where things like the ERA come in.
While adding a bunch of renewable energy to the grid should bring down cost per kWh this does not quiclky (if at all) mean lower cost to end residential/business consumers.
Australia are light years ahead of us by going from about the mid 1990’s mostly privatised electricity generation/transmission and steadily increasing renewable energy (especially PV). Yet from a 2017 report
During the 1990s, Australian governments began to break up the elements of the electricity supply chain and introduce competition in generation and retail.1 Competition should put downward pressure on costs and the prices paid by electricity users, as well as leading to greater consumer choice through a wider range of products.
But electricity prices have soared across Australia in the past decade. In some states, notably New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland, these price increases were driven by extra spending on poles and wires. Yet Victoria had none of these cost pressures, and its wholesale prices were low. Victoria was the first state to liberalise its retail electricity market, but electricity bills increased just the same. This wasn’t supposed to happen.
By 2017 consumer dissatisfaction with rising electricity prices lead to a 2018 Australian Competition and Consumer Commission report indicating
“The approach to policy, regulatory design and promotion of competition in this sector has not worked
well for consumers. Indeed, the National Energy Market (NEM) needs to be reset”
Something the ausies do have to contend with is international gas prices, and that at least will account for a chunk of their price volatility. Renewables appear to soften that blow but consumers still do not necessarily benefit to a great extent. South Australia is particularly interesting as having gone from 0-70% renewable in about 16 years but still had the most expensive electricity in Australia (and apparently most expensive in the world during 2017).
During 2021 South Australia finally managed to achieve the lowest wholesale electricity price in Australia but consumers might still need to wait a while to feel the final effect because
“South Australia used to have the highest wholesale prices, but for the last couple of years because we’ve got more renewables we’ve had the lowest renewable prices,” he said.
“But the wholesale price is only about a quarter to a third of the retail price.
“The price depends on the population density, how much your poles and wires cost per person, how many retailers you have and how much profit they have etc.”
While competition, from whatever source (wind/PV/gas/immature diamonds etc.) is in theory good, legislating around things like price collusion, excessive markups, etc. without making the market so restrictive that it is not attractive to any investor is still a very fine balancing act. I would argue the situation in South Africa is magnitudes more complex than Australia.
So, while arguing about letters and words may activate BS meters, they still have real world effects just like the hard science of generation/transmission/distribution.
The implementation of the NTCSA and all that that entails probably requires the ERA to be amended. Seems the initial drafts were sloppy, but after tweaking was approved by cabinet during March 2023 - where it then seemed to get stuck - i.e. needing to be submitted to parliament by DMRE (i.e. Gwede)
Something the media seems to not have reported on is that the Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill was actually tabled to parliament on 24 July 2023 by Gwede nogal - so while obviously slower than most people would want, by the general bureaucratic standard of a glacier in slow motion, there does appear to be movement on this.
I shall now retire to my pot. Apparently there is a tender out to switch frog cooking from slow simmer to sous vide to minimise risk of mindless amphibians being exposed to external temperature influences.
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But not to be “die drol in die drinkwater”, seeing as sewage is becoming a concern, comparing SA level of Gov intellect with Australian Gov intellect, one has to factor in that some real-life experiences, Aus, USA, Europe, who’s dunnit already, is not going to filter through to SA easily and/nor quickly, slower than “sous vide” cooking, if ever … not to miss the fact that they may decide they know better, wanna do it “myyyyy waaaaay”.
The fact that Gwede does anything, pure media hype where that man is involved. The devil is in the “execution of the plan” … that man is one astute character who knows how to make it look good, when it does not involve his personal fiefdom, coal.
Wait what …
So hold on a second … how did this Karpower connection magically happen when they are coastal-based, with the above in bold stopped!?
Ag nee man … can someone explain to me in basic letters, simple words, what the dang I’m missing now? 
What Gwede wants, Gwede gets.
The grift is high. The capture is complete, but hey, we going to get Karpowerships, yay. Tell you a riddle here, maybe somebody, some day, will tell that riddle…. The story may go somewhat like this is my guess….
The IPP’s were reluctant to pay the demanded incentives and a stalemate was reached. Them crapfty weasels then changed the rules to bar those stubborn donkeys their profits. And no more LS to be had. All is fair and all that.
RulesruleGroetnis
Any comment from the Left … or is that the Right … or are they the Moderates?
@Village_Idiot and @plonkster … yeah, talking about you two.
You two always have a view (L,R,M) that one doesn’t see coming at times … it does help with context … sometimes, views being calm, considered. (… we need that or we will light the torches!)
Specifically about Karpower, being coastal, when wot, R100mil later(?), IPPs still cannot connect?
It’s a “scheme” - lets be honest… BUT how much can they actually make a difference? 1MW (or 1 stage?)
There are other bigger (HUGE) issues to solve!
Uhhh, that is not the point at all. Monies goes offshore eventually, contracts can be manipulated and overcharging happen, we have seen that playbook forever with the CancER. So pockets may be lined, offshore, with no trace in SA.
Also it being elections soon, they can brag and boast about the power solution they provided, electioneering. Always we see, the result is inconsequential and subservient to the personal goal of power in politics and in personal enrichment.
CraftyGroetnis, and as always, I speculate and share an opinion
Seems it is:
What if Karpower has very little to do with sorting the bigger issue, but mostly to do with “demanded incentives” being paid, and that BEFORE elections? Elections cost big money you know…
And the “marketing credit” they can get for the same elections … oh my. See, we solved the energy crisis, Karpower was “always” the answer. Those IPPs, they were sent here by Van Riebeeck to steal our money. (ok ok, I string a lot of different jokes in that one … but you get the point)
SNAP SAREL!!!
O man … I’m just gonna post here what Susan Comrie wrote this morning … Gwede is in here, and the falsehoods recently from our “savior” minister … chalked up some wins … chalk, it is not permanent … where are the IPP’s not connected!?
Stranded coal assets, sooner than we’d like.
SwartKristalBalGroetnis
I don’t know yet.
What I caught, sort of, is that the argument is “we have no grid to connect renewables… but for karpowership we’ll make an effort!”. And of course that all hinges on the feeling we’ve all got that there is a kickback scheme behind it: The entire deal is corrupt.
I am very uneasy about the karpowership thing. Mostly because of the very long term they got signed for, if I remember the news correctly (20 years). But also because this is going the wrong way. We’re supposed to be going towards renewables, if that is the plan, then any interim solutions ought to have a shorter live span.
But then I am always thinking in the back of my mind: What if there is some truth to this? I mean, yes, this is somewhat ironic, but what if the availability of a good grid connection is somewhat location-specific? As it is? The cost difference between building a long thick line to a solar farm up North and a ship off the coast may be significant. I cannot wager a definite “they are out to get us!” verdict before I’ve looked into that. Or someone else does. So I cannot say.
(I mean, my kid may ask me for ice cream, and I might say no, there is no money for that, and then the next day I might go out and buy bread. And then my kid might say: Hey dad, I thought we had no money!? You see the difference? It is about the perspective of importance, and the relative money for bang proposition. You need to know that before you can opine on it).
Mantashe? Don’t really like the guy. Too little humility, at least that’s the vibe I get. Such people are always trouble.
Sorry, cannot help you here.
I want to believe in my fellow man, and this messes with that. I’m taking a break.