Eskom ... is there ANY chance? In CPT there is

General Discussions
2198

A number of journalists had/have the report. Carte Blanche’s piece seemed close to balanced.

News24 probably felt they would make more impact (i.e. clicks) with a “non-supportive” take on the report today than during the frenzy when everyone else basically just regurgitated the eTV interview. Also covering themself in case ADR did actually give more details today, then at least they can say “well, as we pointed out at first the details were a bit scarce but now we will carry the story to the ends of the earth”.

I personally suspect that the report is perhaps somewhat light on what will pass muster as evidence in court. Much of that type of information will a) not be accessible by people outside of SAPS etc. b) if obtained through illegal means will not be of use to bring charges etc. (at least going by the carte blanche piece some of the poor okes in SAPS that are trying to investigate much of what is alleged through the report now have to deal with people of interest who are now extra cautious thanks to that interview).

It seems that for many people the veracity of ADR’s claims are evaluated only based on who he is accusing. If Matshela Koko gave the apparently evading type of responses like ADR today but was pointing fingers at renewable energy/western intelligence services as being heavily influential in the demise of Eskom, how would people judge it?.. okay Koko is maybe a bad choice for the illustration but still…

Edit:
I am a perfect example of preconceived ideas/bias… I could should have used ADR in the “pointing fingers at western intelligence services” idea.

Edit2:
@fredhen, @TheTerribleTriplet : Jacques Pauw’s explanation for the timing of the article is largely due to how long it took to look into the info and give ADR etc. time to respond to his questions (from around 6:30 in the audio).

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2199

One thing that was just pointed out on the Cape Talk radio station (for some reason I decided I’ll tune in today), is that this so called useless intelligence by Fifaz actually led to arrests at some stations. It wasn’t completely useless either.

2200

TL;DR. the report is likely not useless. “Lower level” arrests, though good, are not what the main focus of the interview fall-out was about.

Oh I have no doubt there will be lots of very clear and thorough information in the report (more correctly probably still ongoing intelligence and surveillance etc). So arrests of heavy fuel oil stealing “getaway drivers” are likely to happen. But those are also not the ones that got the headlines following the interview.

The “high level political figure” who may, or may not still be or have been a minister is the most obvious one that gets called into question. This is where the evidence is crucial and possibly lacking. Simply being able to point out “the cousin of Mr X is director of a company who received a contract where a R800 000 mop was bought and this proves that Mr X and the whole organisation he is associated with is corrupt” is not sufficient. This was apparently the problem in the “first Gupta related NPA loss”. For instance, quoting the judge:

"the State had failed to meet even the barest of threshold to prove that all the accused had unlawfully and intentionally committed fraud (count two).

She said count three – money laundering – was the count that most invoked a sense of loss to the public, but regrettably the State failed to meet even the barest of threshold in proving its case. She said it was evident that R24.9-million left the State coffers, but the questions how and where it went have not been answered by the State." (emphasis my own)

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2201

Interesting development - I think the government will definitely appeal [Shock court ruling: Schools, hospitals and police stations must not be affected by load shedding | Business ]

“Judge Norman Davis ordered the Minister of Public Enterprises Pravin Gordhan to “take all reasonable steps” within 60 days to ensure that public health establishments, state schools and the South African Police Service are not affected by load shedding.”

But Friday’s judgment notes that where it’s impossible to isolate embedded buildings and spare them from load shedding, Gordhan must ensure that generators and other alternate energy supplies are secured to ensure uninterrupted power.

EDIT: the judge apparently indicating that load shedding is the consequence of government policy decisions will definitely get the hackles up and might even open the door for various (meaning many many many) claims against the government for the impact of load shedding?

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2202

Indeed! I was not expecting that. Then again, judges just apply the laws made by the legislators.

At least it acknowledges that it may in fact not be possible to spare all hospitals and schools from load shedding. Sooo… will we be seeing a massive inverter rollout to all schools? :slight_smile: Probably not.

2203

And then again, judgments set new presidents, i.e. interpreting the existing laws to drive them into a new direction, sometimes new laws, leading to laws being altered, improved, or removed.

Existing laws are not set in concrete, they evolved.

Take Roe vs Wade as the best “picture” I can present of what I mean.

2204

You mean, the fact that it was recently overturned? Well, to be fair, it wasn’t completely overturned. The part that was overturned was that it was made applicable to all the states (it became federal law). This means each state can now make it’s own rules about it again (in fact, some made laws in advance that would kick in if the R vs W was ever overturned). This is however a sensitive topic, so I’ll leave it there.

Indeed, laws are sometimes overturned, they are amended, etc etc. But Judges are not allowed to do that. They cannot rule from the bench. They only apply the laws. I can imagine that the way our constitution focuses on human rights, a right to education, a right to medical care, a right to dignity… the court wasn’t going to let the state shirk it’s responsibilities because it just happened to screw up the power supply. It’s telling the state that it needs to stick to its own rules.

It’s not going to happen though. There isn’t money for that sort of thing.

2205

What? An opportunity to spend taxpayers’ money on national installation contracts with additional procurement opportunities.
Heavensent.
“In order to pursue the greater good, you have to enable some people to eat a little bit".
– anonymous ANC minister.

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2206

Yes, but will they be able to actually get the job done, every school, every hospital? The money is actually better spent in fixing Eskom… I mean, in a normal world (which Sarel will tell me this isn’t), that’s the most cost-effective way to do it. Right?

:slight_smile:

2207

not to put too fine a point on it but they actually interpret more than just mindlesly applying. Probably a major reason why drawing up legislation takes so long. For instance

The part of the (non-“online-news-media-content-creator” parapharsed*) judgement I saw actually refers to “Health Establishments” - that changes the practical implications dramatically from only hospitals to many more buildings needing to be in line for getting the local reticulation network changed to allow single loadshedding exemption or getting generators, installation, fuel, staff training, liability mitigation for damage due to equipment malfunction, maintenance etc.).

Also, the judgement refers to “all reasonable steps” - that will probably keep legal scholars and philosophers busy way past the point where we mere mortals will lose interest.

`* This time parapharsed is used intentionally

probably the one thing everyone will agree on :thinking: / :face_with_raised_eyebrow: / :woozy_face: / :face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

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2208

When ever the CancER could be bothered to adhere to anything a judge penned as the outcome of a court case… Ie. Never.

Groetnis

2209

“anonymous ANC minister”… allegedly

for all readers, not aimed at @Phil.g00 tldr: the “let others eat” quote can have other interpretation/s. For the bored, continue reading :face_with_peeking_eye:

btw, @anyonewhoreadsthis I am not debating the existence of corruption etc. - well not even debating at all. I have a bit of a fascination with how what used to be sound bites in the older days (who said this?: “I did not have sexual relations with that woman…”) appear to have been replaced by mere headlines and memes that allow for even less context but become immutable “facts” that have the potential for major societal impact.

Taking the “let them eat” (…cake…/electrons?) quote.

Context: eTV interview
“Reporter” asks: "is eskom a feeding trough for the ANC?"

AdR responds: “I will say the evidence suggests that it is” → he then continues (to support/as example of his conclusion) to recall an incident where he voiced to a minister an opinion that there is “in my view” attempts to water down governance around the COP26 R8bn finance package. To this there is a response “you have to be pragmatic… for the greater good you have to enable some people to eat a little”.
During that exchange AdR also seemed to emphasize that the COP26 finance package was largely due to Eskom’s intervention.

So, now everyone has confirmation of the fact that AdR said the entire ANC is using Eskom as an ATM - they even want to take Just Energy Transition Money to enrich themself… BUT we do not know what the “water down governance” part means, who is watering it down, or even whether AdR’s own interpretation that there is an attempt to water it down is even correct (he himself pointed out “in my view”).

Interestingly (for me at least) there appears to be some contention around the COP26 pot of gold (imagine that - Leprechauns all over Glasgow…).

Eskom faces competition from the South African department of trade and industry, which is also seeking funds for two programs. The first would boost electric-vehicle production, helping preserve cars as one of the nation’s most important exports. The second would invest in green hydrogen in a bid to position South Africa as a major producer as interest grows in its use in decarbonising activities such as steelmaking and shipping …

Eskom initiated talks with the lender countries before COP26 and intervention by the industry department has caused some tension

But was the COP26 package only?/mainly? due to Eskom’s efforts or where does credit go?

The $8.5bn package is “groundbreaking” because it was “co-created” by South Africa and donor countries, rather than imposed by wealthy nations, Maesela Kekana, South Africa’s climate change chief negotiator, told Climate Home News.

Kekana said environment minister Barbara Creecy had been lobbying the CIFs for a coal transition programme to be established.

So, now there exists the possibility that Eskom wanted all/the bulk of the COP26 package allocated to it (eskom believing they earned it/can do more with it/etc) but other government entities were also in the queue. Therefore, a comment “let others eat for the greater good” could also mean that the higher ups suggested “share your ice-cream with your sister”. And yes, it can also mean “we are actively diverting the entire eskom budget to build multiple fire pools across the country… by the way, how do you take your coffee?”.

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2210

I agree on this, that within the context of letting others eat, that might not have meant what the media immediately took it for. If we said this of anyone else, for example if someone in management suggested that the company pay our employees a bit of a bonus instead of banking all the profit, you could also defend that by saying: We have to let them eat too. And within the context, nobody would have had a problem with that.

The problem with Eskom, of course, is we know there is a lot of corruption, so we are so much more inclined to see that statement in the most negative way possible.

Also, even if it was meant “well”, we know there are those waiting in the wings, always happy to use a good opportunity. I think this was AdR’s concern. They worked hard on that (even if they were not alone), and then heard that it was going to be spread a bit more widely…

About people trying to get in to a deal. I will mention no names, because I am not allowed to. But I was in a meeting once about implementing full official support for a well known battery. This was shortly after the company had landed a huge deal supplying equipment to a large multinational in West Africa. Everyone expected the deal to go to a competitor, and when it went the other way, this battery maker was suddenly at a disadvantage: They weren’t on the official battery list. This was again a place where I saw that Dutch courage doesn’t always involve alcohol. They were told, straight up, not to expect a piece of the West African pie.

We never heard from them again after that :slight_smile:

It’s a perfect example of this sort of thing, but in a positive context. People were really just trying to eat, in a legitimate manner!

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2211

This morning the frequency was 49.3Hz.
Really not a good sign.

Does someone perhaps know what is the trip frequency set at.

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2212

I can’t say that I see the same. But here is an interesting graph. It’s when the supplementary generators come on at Canal Walk at 6am

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2213

From a Nersa Doc:

Screenshot 2023-05-08 at 11.52.54
Screenshot 2023-05-08 at 11.52.541054×984 176 KB

Found the doc: https://www.nersa.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/SAGC-System-Ops-Version-10.pdf

periodiekeGroetnis
PS: It is a lot more complicated than what the graph conveys.

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2214

What I can tell you, is that a large number of clocks in the house are gaining about 90 seconds or so per day (you know, some clocks use the grid frequency as time base). That means that on average we’re running above 50Hz.

2215

With all the load shedding, me thinks thy are freewheeling…

Groetnis

2216

I have counted 14h off from 6 am to 6 am the next day …

2217

What I’ve noticed is that the more we loadshed, the bigger the 50.18Hz hump gets:
image
I thought that was to catch-up during off-peak times.

Conversely, when we are in lower stages, there appears a hump on the other side of 50Hz as well.