tldr. USA timing of airing the Lady R laundry is strange. At least some in the USA might help South Africans weather the energy crisis through accessing gas to power from unknown sources. I have trust issues.
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The topic of Lady R is by now probably like flogging Bush Telegraph (1987 Durban July winner…).
Firstly, I truly hope no armament was sold/provided/loaned/gifted to Russia but unfortunately that is a distinct possibility. With that said, something that puzzles me around the initial statements by the US ambassador is what exactly do they want?
If the USA knows weapons left from South Africa destined for Russia, why do they need us to admit that? Will admitting it change the punishment? Is this like a parent who says, “I will not be angry if you tell me you broke the vase but I do not want you to lie to me” - or will it be like someone who is upset at their dog misbehaving who then calls the dog, the dog approaches cautiously, and then gets kicked?
As it seems we are unlikely to be able to provide a) stuff Russia can really use b) stuff in any quantity that will have much material impact on what happens in Ukraine, is it perhaps not so much about South Africa possibly providing armament to Russia but using South Africa as an example to others who might have similar thoughts (“if we are willing to punch the once a upon a time Cinderella in the gut, imagine what we will do to you, ugly step sister…”).
The US ambassador apparently voiced mostly three things that the USA took exception to as far as I could discern (no unedited video of the briefing is available) but some can be pieced together 1 2 3). South Africa’s apparent non-aligned stance (Lady R, South Africa’s non-commitment to arresting Putin, and BRICS), perceived hostility towards the USA by the ruling party and(?) the ANC 55th conference Resolution on international relations which does not acknowledge the investment/benefit from the USA while referring to the USA as main aggressor/influencer in Ukraine/Russia due to the Wolfowitz Doctrine.
The USA, every Capetonian with a cell phone, and therefore basically the whole world knew about Lady R since December 2022. Why the haste NOW to get a public confession? Did the USA only suspect something since December but then last week receive confirmation that someone recovered fragments in Ukraine stamped “made in South Africa”? The timing of the ambassador’s briefing following the return from the USA by the ambassador and SA government delegation, for me, points to the USA not getting what they wanted from that engagement - my money is on BRICS being the bigger issue (mumblings of challenging the dollar and all that).
Another interesting, though not wholly unrelated possibility, is that the very public statement by the ambassador may not have that much to do with South Africa/Ukraine/Russia specifically but is a reflection of USA internal politics - the current administration risking looking too soft?
In February 2023 a Republican senator introduced a bill generally reported on as “denouncing South Africa’s naval exercise with Russia and China”. The bill while referencing South Africa is critical of the Biden administration and actually primarily focussed on China being a problem - those forum members with Hikvision cameras and/or Huawei routers should note that some in the USA are concerned about your choice…
Whereas the increased Chinese presence in South Africa’s technology sector has raised concerns that the ANC may be trying to copy the PRC’s model of digitally aided authoritarian governance underpinned by cyber controls, social monitoring, and surveillance;
Whereas Vumacam, a South African company building a nationwide CCTV network, has partnered with Chinese company Hikvision for the cameras’ hardware, and Telkom, South Africa’s partially State-owned telecoms operator, launched its 5G network throughout the country in October 2022 using technology from Huawei Technologies
So, how do we get back to the thread topic from this walkabout? The bill in question consists of 36 paragraphs. South Africa’s electricity crisis is mentioned only once but the final demand from the bill is
a timeline to end the Biden administration’s climate colonialism by including gas-to-power initiatives to counter the widespread and nationwide blackouts costing the South African economy an estimated $200,000,000 per day. (emphasis my own)
Why does a bill taking aim at Biden and China, through South Africa end up with a demand about adding -“gas-to-power” to the South African grid? I do not know. Considering South Africa’s current infrastructure/capacity with regard to natural gas this will need major imports from outside of South Africa (at least the exchange rate will help /sarcasm). What other source can we possibly have? Now, THAT is a f(ra)cking good question, isn’t it?
Point? With the active (business)lobbying present in USA politics and the huge promise/opportunity presented to corporates both locally and internationally by the crisis which is Eskom, I question the motive of the ambassador’s briefing and remain somewhat suspicious of everyone.